In an article I read to day there is an equation used to try and predict what your domestic workforce equation looks like.
The report offers the Aging/Work force Equation: global aging + country/region factors + policy levers + wildcards = work force outcomes.
They also offer 7 implications relating to this scenario.
Domestic supplies of labor will decline.
o Aging will “double whammy” the high-skilled worker supply.
o The global “Battle for Talent” will intensify.
o Indigenous supply of low-skilled workers will decrease.
o Manufacturing firms locate where there are less labor shortages.
o Globalization of human resources.
o Efforts to substitute capital and technology for labor.
Read the complete article here: http://www.salemnews.net/news/story/0723202006_new07brownfield.asp
As consulting futurists and strategists, part of our job involves making predictions about trends that we see coming. We track societal trends, especially looking at technology, demographics, institutions and value shifts in the world. But, we also touch on politics, economics, geography and more. Its pretty dangerous to make predictions, of course - especially about the future. I think it was Alvin Toffler who said that most good futurists are correct about the content of their predictions, but most are very badly off with regards to the timing. So, its nice to get some right every now and again - and, like most futurists, I am happy to celebrate these. Here is a selection of predictions we made more than a year ago, and can now see the results:
- Cyril Rhamaposa has said that he will try for the leadership of the ANC, and by implication for the presidency of the country in 2009. I suppose I cannot claim this as a “prediction”, but rather more of a hope and prayer. Either way, its fantastic news that he’s doing this. In most other countries, news like this would have caused stockmarkets to rally and the currency to strengthen - because its brilliant news.
- We predicted that the Doha global trade talks round would collapse, mainly because the EU (France, in particular) and the USA would refuse to remove their agricultural subsidies.
- About 6 years ago, we predicted that AIDS would not have the devastating effect on the economy that many were predicting. We said it was already discounted into company share prices. And we felt that due to high unemployment and a large potential labour pool, many casualties of AIDS would be replaced in the work environment. A recent survey now confirms this, estimating the impact of AIDS on the South African economy would be about 0.4% decrease in GDP per annum.
Now, just to be fair, here is what we’re predicting for the next little while that we are still watching. Timeline - end of 2006:
- Oil will drop to $ 60 a barrel or less. Right now the high price has got more to do with futures trading and spot positions, than with global demand and supply or international volatlity and instability. Some corrections should take place by year end, assuming no major catastrophies have taken place.
- The Rand will be at $ 6.50. This may take into next year, but the move out of emereging markets in the last few weeks will be corrected over the next year or so.
- South Africa’s growth rate will hit 5% per annum. I still firmly believe that it is being under reported right now (even without including all informal sector trading).
Let me begin by saying that I have never been a victim of violent crime in 25 years of living in South Africa.
A Golf I once owned did get broken into overnight. My childhood home in Johannesburg was invaded and goods were stolen, once. My brother was held up at knifepoint on a sidewalk. I know people that have been hijacked at gunpoint. That said, I do not claim to identify with people who have been subjected to devastating acts of violence, assault, abuse and discrimination, and admit up front my bias towards a country and a nation I love, celebrate and feel privileged to be a part of.
There are many who wouldn’t agree. Neil Watson, a South African citizen, feels so strongly about what he believes is an understated and out-of-control crime reality in South Africa that he’s started up a website to rally support from like-minded compatriots. Crime Expo South Africa is a blog that, according to the site, “aim(s) to provide victims of violent crime, as well as friends and families of the slaughtered, with an opportunity to collectively register their anger and provide the world with a preview of violent South Africa…” and “provide(s) an opportunity to the murdered to raise from their graves and haunt those who let them down!”
Continue reading ‘Crime Doesn’t Pay. Or Does It?’
Christopher Scanlon, writing for The Age (Australian newspaper) on 24 July 2006, questions the simplistic way in which some people approach and utilise generational theory. (Read it here, or below).
They are the generation that has slipped the marketers’ net. Raised in a society saturated by media and technology, by age eight they’ve consumed more images and information than any previous generation before. They know the standard repertoires of the ad-men and can guess the punchline of an ad before it’s finished.
With so much technology at their fingertips and so many screens vying for their attention, marketers simply don’t know which way to jump. A single ad campaign with a single message simply won’t wash with this generation of media savvy 20-somethings.
Their lifestyles are so complex, their tastes so diverse and fast-changing, that any marketer that does manage to corner them has their work cut out keeping them. They demand customised, individualised products to match their complex lifestyles and multiple identities. Patronise them and you can kiss them goodbye. Educated, media savvy and smart, they’re beyond the range of the marketer’s siren song. Such is the standard copy for generation Y, anyway.
The problem with this thumbnail sketch, which is regularly served up by advertisers and faithfully reported by the media - including a host of articles in recent years in this newspaper - is that pretty much the same things were said about generation X and, before them, the baby boomers.
A 1992 Business Week article, for example, declared that generation X was “far more knowledgeable about and suspicious of advertising than earlier generations passing through their 20s”. The only way to reach them was for marketers to acknowledge the artifice of their trade through irony and humour. Hence the Sprite ads throughout the late 1990s, which informed savvy gen X beverage consumers that a soft-drink would not make them more attractive, better at sport or more successful. “Image is Nothing. Thirst is Everything. Obey Your Thirst”, ordered those anti-establishment rebels at Sprite.
Essentially the same story was told about the counterculture and the hippies in the 1960s. The “New Advertising”, as Thomas Frank refers to it in his history of the US advertising industry The Conquest of Cool, presented itself as a reaction to the supposed dull conformity of the 1950s. Brands like VW and 7-Up flattered the baby boomers as free-thinking individuals who couldn’t be bought off by the patronising guff served by the paternalistic advertisers of the 1950s. They consciously called attention to the fact that advertising was a sham designed to have one over on the consumer.
Continue reading ‘Gen X, gen Y - it’s generation con, actually’
It was the Baby Boomer women that fuelled the feminist revolution of the 1960s and 70s. Their focus may have shifted, but they’re still revolutionaries. Kay S. Hymowitz writes an excellent piece in the City Journal of the Manhattan Institute (read the very long piece here). Some selected quotes:
Boomers—especially feminist-influenced women of a certain class who are now publishing their philosophy of life after 50—will not be growing old. … They’re busy, busy, busy! They go to the gym! They work in animal shelters! They travel! They get divorced! And yes (Yes! Yes!), they have orgasms!
Not so long ago, enlightened women of the boomer generation were known for worrying about equal rights, equal pay, Roe v. Wade, Title IX, and the location of the Masters Golf Tournament. Today, not so much. As they shuffle off into their golden years, many appear to be turning inward. As the title of a catalog that arrived in my mailbox recently put it, they want “Time for Me”—time that appears to involve a lot of anti-aging formulas, herbal supplements, figure-shaping undergarments, and vibrators. Don’t get me wrong. Boomer fems continue to be enemies of the patriarchy. They still want men to do the laundry. Their tone remains defiant. But their personal is no longer very political; even their political isn’t very political. Nobody’s putting it this way, but it seems that liberation politics have become irrelevant to what is now their most pressing concern, which—depending on your emphasis—is: how to bring meaning to their dwindling years, or how to avoid being mistaken for their grandmothers.
Continue reading ‘Boomer Women, Grandmas and Second Wave Feminism’
As Boomers approach 60 years of age many are asking the question. Who am I and what am I going to do with the remainer of my life ?
In the USA there are many tools apprearing on the market to help individuals assess their current status and then work with a coach to plan a strategy for the future.
TomorrowWisdom is able to offer this service currently in South Africa. Read more about the global review here: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_30/b3994402.htm
By Nick Roddick, in the Scotsman - read it here.
NEXT time you go to the movies, ask yourself the following questions. Does the cinema have (a) a bar that wouldn’t look out of place in a posh hotel, or (b) an easy-wipe counter with hot-dog and popcorn machines? Is there (a) lots of glass, chrome and recessed lighting, or (b) miles of stained carpet beneath acres of polystyrene roof panels? And, finally, do your fellow movie-goers look (a) as if they’ve just left a Virgin Megastore with an armful of classic rock albums, or (b) like all their music comes from downloads?
If the answer to all questions is a, then welcome to the world of the MBA - the Movie Buff Adult, the fastest-growing section of the cinemagoing audience.
The Hollywood trade paper Variety recently noted a major surge in the number of 40 to 60-year-olds going to the cinema. But Michael Barker of Sony Pictures Classics thinks Variety is understating things: “I’d say 40 and upwards - no upper limit,” he insists. “Senior citizens are now going back to the movies in big numbers.”
Geoff Gilmore, the director of the prestigious Sundance Film Festival, agrees. “These are the people who have made our kind of movies possible,” he says.
Continue reading ‘From Generation X to baby boomers - why more mature audiences are flocking to the cinema’
Last night, Dr Graeme Codrington was on Carte Blanche (a South African investigative TV show), talking about Great Companies to Work For. A lot of the information came from TomorrowToday’s presentations on Talent, especially “Bright Young Things“.
It was also great to have some of our top clients profiled, including SA Breweries, Net#work BBDO, Avovision and Citadel.
A transcript appears below.
Continue reading ‘Best Business (Graeme Codrington on Carte Blanche)’
A great article by Raymond de Villiers appeared in Personal Finance. Read it here.
He looks at the impact of generations on Life Assurance.
Straight from BoingBoing…
Humans could have a permanent base on the moon in 20 years and a colony on Mars in the next 40 years, the British scientist told a news conference.
“We won’t find anywhere as nice as Earth unless we go to another star system,” added Hawking…
Hawking said that if humans can avoid killing themselves in the next 100 years, they should have space settlements that can continue without support from Earth.
“It is important for the human race to spread out into space for the survival of the species,” Hawking said. “Life on Earth is at the ever-increasing risk of being wiped out by a disaster, such as sudden global warming, nuclear war, a genetically engineered virus or other dangers we have not yet thought of.”
Originally from CNN
Technorati Tags: Hawking, Space
From The Australian newspaper, 12 July, 2006. “Sharing in the baby boomer bonanza: One can take stock and cash in on the affluence of this group” by James Dunn:
THE transition of Australia’s baby boomers into retirement is not only a demographic phenomenon, it is also an economic one. The cashed-up boomers will be the most affluent generation yet to retire.
Profiting from a demographic is easier said than done, but there are pointers for share market investors. KPMG demographer Bernard Salt says the 4.1 million baby boomers [in Australia] approaching retirement will be “rapacious consumers”. ….
Share investors wishing to benefit from the baby boomer demographic usually look to the obvious candidates - health care, private hospital and retirement village stocks. But if the baby boomers are also going to be big spenders on lifestyle, a wide range of industries should also benefit….
Continue reading ‘Getting your share of the Boomer Retyrement Market’
One of the more difficult Connection Economy concepts for people to get their heads around is the concept that Edward de Bono dubbed, “co-opetition”. This is defined as the ability of competitors to co-operate.
Watching the longest Tour de France stage yesterday (230 km’s!!), with an early breakaway of 5 riders, that eventually put more than half an hour between themselves and the peleton, it struck me that professional cycling provides a great example of co-opetation. Those five riders had to work together and co-oridinate their efforts in order to get ahead of the pack. But they all knew that about 5km from the end, one of them would break ranks and force the competition to re-emerge and dominate for the last sprint to the line. As soon as the first person broke ranks, the co-operation would be over. But until that point, they’d work well together and get an advantage.
Simple picture, but it works for me.
I found this article on India’s Generation Y (born after 1979). It’s very interesting because although it focuses on corporate India, it is relevant to all organisations all over the world:
Young to turn critical for India, Inc.
The Economic Times
06 July 2006
K Ramkumar was a little surprised that day. A fresh recruit from a top B-school, looking almost shattered and very sad, knocked at his door: “Sir, I need to speak to you.” As the HR head of ICICI Bank, Kumar was at least two levels away from the recruit’s immediate boss. Though a bit taken aback by his confidence, he welcomed him in, saying, “Come in, come in. what’s the matter?”
India’s Generation Y (those born after 1979) is now entering the work force. With 54% of India’s population under 24 years, their number in the work force is, by any count, sizeable.
But handling them will not be easy. They are a completely different breed. Conventions, and the usual management principles just do not apply here. They are an impatient, impulsive, confident - at times overconfident - lot who have mostly got things on a platter.
Continue reading ‘Generation Y’
At least some of their developers do….
An absolute classic. I was trying to download Microsoft Media Player 10 (to reinstall it, because ONCE AGAIN, MS Windows and MS Media Management and MS PowerPoint are not all talking to each other when it comes to multimedia!!), and on the instructions page to get Windows Authentication, I saw an interesting thing… an image of the Firefox download manager.
OK, so follow me here. In order to download MS Media Player, I must authenticate that I am using genuine Microsoft software. In order to do that, I must download a plug-in. The guy who designed and tested this at Microsoft does not use Internet Explorer, however, he uses Firefox, and took a screenshot of his own download for the official Microsoft help page. Check it out here (if you can get in).
As Nuf Sed would say, “Beeooootifull”
Se screenshot below.
Continue reading ‘Microsoft Uses Firefox’
This is fairly basic stuff, but may be helpful as we think through how to attract and retain talented young people into our businesses. For a detailed definition, look at Wikipedia.
The term “knowledge worker” was coined by Peter Drucker in 1959 to describe someone who adds value by processing existing information to create new information which could be used to define and solve problems. They now dominate the workspace, accounting for over 80% of all formally employed people in the world.
“… fewer and fewer people are subordinates - even in fairly low-level jobs. Increasingly they are knowledge workers. Knowledge workers cannot be managed as subordinates; they are associates… This difference is more than cosmetic. Once beyond the apprentice stage, knowledge workers must know more about their job than their boss does - or what good are they? The very definition of a knowledge worker is one who knows more about his or her job than anyone else in the organization.”
Continue reading ‘Knowledge Workers as associates not subordinates’
Now that the hoopla of the World Cup is over, I can express something I know a lot of people have felt (see here for example).
This World Cup set a record for cautions with 345 yellow cards, a 27 per cent jump from 2002, and an astounding 28 red cards. And the lasting image will be of Zidane (three times world footballer of the year, and bizarrely named the 2006 World Cup Golden Boot) head butting Materazzi in the 110th minute, and ending his career with a red card.
But what struck me was how all the “FIFA Fair play” stuff made no impact on the field of the play. Some games (especially, it must be said, the Italians) looked more like theatre classes than sports fields, with guys collapsing and writhing in “agony” when in reality they were hardly touched. Its just sad to see some of the highest paid athletes in the world rolling around on the ground clutching their shins in pain. And then running after the ball 2 minutes later.
And let’s not even talk about how referees and officials are treated by these spoilt brats. They should make a rule about that - and require yellow cards for talking back. Actually, it would need to be for shouting and cursing back, because no-one “talks” to the ref in football.
And my final beef with the “beautiful game” is the lack of technology. Some of the fouls could be easily checked out - especially if inside the area for penalties.
But, hey, maybe I’m just bitter that the country with biggest football scandal gets to win the cup. And you should probably ignore my views on sport anyway - I’m one of the crazy ones that can sit through five days of Test cricket, and enjoy the fact that it ends in a draw 
I don’t have a clever point to make here. I just think soccer needs help.
Co-opetition: This was a word invented by Edward de Bono, that described co-operation between competitors. This is a feature of the Connected World.
A small story caught my eye this past week. Recently, two employees of Coca-Cola (at head office in the USA) were busted trying to sneak out secrets, especially the recipe for a new Coke flavour. They got caught because the person they were trying to sell the secrets to contacted Coca-Cola and tipped them off.
Who was this honest person? It was Pepsi Cola Company. Whether or not Pepsi actually saw the recipe before telling Coca-Cola is a moot point. The bottom line is that in pretty much every industry in the world, the competitors are watching each other so closely that the competition is NOT based on WHAT they sell, but rather on WHO they are. That’s why this kind of action is so important. It goes to who you are.
Well done Pepsi!
How lame is that title? You come up with a better one…
Exciting news in my inbox yesterday - Jonathan Cherry of Cherryflava.com and more recently, the Cherryflava Media Company, has secured a deal with BMW to support the launch of the new Z4 Coupe with a blogging campaign. Kudo’s to Jon!
The press release:
A first in South Africa - BMW have taken the leap into the world of blogs by advertising the launch of their new Z4 coupe on one.
The newly-formed Cherryflava Media Company, South Africa’s first blog media publisher, together with newly established brand activation company, Thirty Four, announced Friday that BMW South Africa has included Cherryflava’s flagship title, Cherryflava.com, in their online advertising campaign for the new BMW Z4 Coupe.
Continue reading ‘BMW: Blogging Meets Wheels’
More often than not the accussation of “telling tales” reminds us of our childhood when our parents would admonish us for being naughty and use this phrase in a far-from-covert ploy to get us to tell the truth. Well, JetBlue is now actually encourgaing the telling of tales … customer experience style. By establishing a Story Booth customers can, via megaphone, express there feelings about the airline. Or, you can submit a story to their story web page here. The Motley Fool reports that close on 2,000 anecdote have been gathered to date. A nice way for a company to embrace the power of narrative.
Business 2.0 recently released its list of 50 People Who Matter NOW, and 10 People Who Don’t just to compliment it.
No huge surprises on the Top 50 Who Matter list, if you understand that the role of the consumer has changed dramatically in the last few years.
You see, Business 2.0 reckons the most important business person on the planet right now is…
… wait for it …
YOU!
Closely followed by sires Brin and Page. How nifty is that?
Continue reading ‘Business 2.0 Gets It’
Fifteen percent of the CEO’s of the worlds biggest 2500 firms left their jobs in 2005 — a sharp increase on 2004 and 70 percent more than a decade ago. More than a third of those were relieved of their duties due to under-performance, some quit simply because they couldn’t take the pace and others reached mandatory retirement age. In many cases they would have been relieved. Being CEO of a top company may be financially rewarding but it’s increasingly demanding and many are bowing out.
The stats for the JSE are even higher with at least ten of South Africa’s 40 biggest companies changing CEO in the past 18 months, with retirements, resignations and sackings all prevalent in the local market. This is an extract from an article by Bruce Whitfield in Business.iafrica.com. read it here.http://business.iafrica.com/opinion/662457.htm
Evidence of the “connection economy” is growing all the time. One of the key characteristics of this new era is the decreasing importance of tradition boundaries, and the increasingly significant role of connections. In particular, geographic barriers are being swept away in a tidal wave of technology-fuelled globalisation. The latest scrap of evidence of this emerging reality comes from the Anglican church (the “Church of England”).
Since 2003 when the American arm of the Anglican church, The Episcopalians, ordained an openly gay man, Gene Robinson, to the position of bishop there has been a growing divide in the global church body representing about 80 million people around the world. In particular, the African Anglicans who are mainly conservative and opposed to homosexuality have been pushing hard for the Americans to be disciplined or even kicked out of the Anglican Communion. The general body of the Episcopal church have refused to budge.
BUT, a number of individual churches that are more conservative have broken ranks. They have left their geographic diocese, and have oversight from another diocese. In the past, this has sometimes been done from “head office” in Canterbury directly, but now something new has happened. These American churches have connected with African diocese, and are now accountable to bishops thousands of miles away. This is actually outside of the Anglican rules, although technically it is within church law.
The bottom line is that the connection economy is impacting everything everywhere. As Thomas Friedman said, “The World is Flat”, and it is seriously Connected, too.
Read more about the Anglican Church in The Economist.
In light of an earlier post today about a web site working hard to ‘warn’ foreigners of a dangerous South Africa’, here’s a great article from iol. It’s around 2010 and the South African host. Thabo Mbeki is in Germany for the final this weekend and here are some exerts from him….
“We said we will host in 2010 the most successful Fifa World Cup and we will keep that promise,” he insisted, describing the tournament as “a beacon of hope”.
“Football is all about hope - hope for a better world,” a pastime which will “touch the world and build a better future.
“Africa is ready, Africa’s time has come, Africa is calling. Come to Africa in 2010,” said Mbeki, urging fans to “celebrate Africa in all its magnificent splendour” and seize an opportunity to spread “human solidarity” as Africa emerges “from many many centuries of great difficulty”.
And from Sepp Blatter, Fifa President…
“It is African day. Today is a day of joy and a day of hope,” said Blatter turning his gaze to 2010.”You can call it justice for African football, but also justice for Africa - for all the women and the men of this continent,” Blatter said, calling on South Africa to show off the beauty of its landscapes and depth of its cultures.
Technorati Tags: South Africa, World Cup 2010, Soccer, Football
Tomorrow marks the start of the annual rugby Tri-nations tournament between South Africa, New Zealand and Australia. As usual, the cultural banter between the countries rises. I couldn’t resist sharing this story.
From SuperRugby, care of Reuters: “Australia have upset near-neighbour New Zealand with television advertisements depicting some of their rugged rugby players carrying women’s handbags.
Continue reading ‘Haka’s and Handbags’
Recent Comments