Author Archive for Graeme Codrington

Generation Y studied by Economist Business Intelligence Unit

Youth researchOne of the most common criticisms of generational theory is that it is nothing much more than pop psychology. While it is true that many people use generational theory in its crudest forms, applying it when all they know about it is what they heard in a one hour keynote session at a conference, this does not mean that the theory itself has no substance. It is also true that some people use it as a “blunt instrument” - applying it with no regard to other dynamics and segmentation models. Again, just because some people use it badly, doesn’t discredit the theory itself.

There are many formal research projects on generations, and almost all of them confirm the basic theory and its findings. A recent study now focuses on the younger generation, known as Generation Y. The global survey was conducted by the Economist Business Intelligence Unit and Genesys, an Alcatel-Lucent company. It looked at how consumers born between 1982 and 2001 will impact the customer experience, asking C-level and senior executives from around the world how they are creating a customer experience to attract and retain Millennials. Of the 164 executives who took part in the survey, 29% came from North America, 31% from Europe, 30% from Asia-Pacific and 10% from the rest of the world. Participants represented 19 different industries. One-third of respondents’ organisations had annual revenue greater than US$1 billion and just over one-half (51%) had less than US$500 million in revenue. Board members and CEOs comprised 30% of respondents. CFOs, CTOs and other C-level executives made up an additional 19%. The remainder was split among other senior and middle management functions.

The headline results and executive summary of the findings is very interesting:

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In Turbulent Times, People Matter

Now more than ever you need well trained, passionate staff, focused on delivering consistent, high quality service and products. Yet, just when you need them to be most passionate and focused, many companies are finding that their people are demotivated and distracted, especially their younger staff members. Getting the most out of them requires a changed mindset and improved management skills that every leader would do well to understand.

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Trends affecting the future of work

I found an excellent blog entry that goes into some detail about the process of developing scenarios for the future. It is entitled: “A Framework to Forecast the Future of Working“. (PS, my friend, Clem Sunter is one of South Africa’s top scenario planners, having spent most of his career being paid to do this at Anglo American. His website is one of the best on the issue: Mind of a Fox, and his books are superb).

I thought you might find the analysis of future trends at the “Future of Working” website interesting:

Gutenberg Take Two

It started with Gutenberg’s printing press, the ability to mass communicate information in the form of books and newspapers, a changing of people’s view of the world. Gutenberg is credited with enabling the Renaissance, the Scientific Revolution, and the Protestant Reformation (Harry Ransom Centre, 2008). Once again the availability of information has taken on a new level fuelled by the Internet. It is providing mass communication between everyone on the plant. Today we are going through the same quantum of change as the world did starting in the 1400s with the advent of the printing press. Kevin Kelly predicted back in 1997 that this level of change will be “momentous” and explained how the underlying driver of this was communication;
“The great irony of our times is that the era of computers is over. All the major consequences of stand-alone computers have already taken place. Computers have speeded up our lives a bit, and that is it. In contrast all the most promising technologies making their debut now are chiefly due to communications between computers - that is, to connections rather than to computations. And since communications is the basis of culture, fiddling at this level is indeed momentous.” (Kelly, 1997, page 140)

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The Net Generation: The kids are alright, OK?

In the latest edition of The Economist, there is a news of a massive research project recently completed on how the Net impacts kids.  It’s well worth reading, and supports the conclusions my co-author, Nikki Bush and I put in my latest book, “Future-Proof Your Child“. 

The net generation
The kids are alright

Nov 13th 2008
From The Economist print edition

WORRIES about the damage the internet may be doing to young people has produced a mountain of books—a suitably old technology in which to express concerns about the new. Robert Bly claims that, thanks to the internet, the “neo-cortex is finally eating itself”. Today’s youth may be web-savvy, but they also stand accused of being unread, bad at communicating, socially inept, shameless, dishonest, work-shy, narcissistic and indifferent to the needs of others.

 The man who christened the “net generation” in his 1997 bestseller, “Growing Up Digital”, has no time for such views. In the past two years, Don Tapscott has overseen a $4.5m study of nearly 8,000 people in 12 countries born between 1978 and 1994. In “Grown Up Digital” he uses the results to paint a portrait of this generation that is entertaining, optimistic and convincing. The problem, he suspects, is not the net generation but befuddled baby-boomers, who once sang along with Bob Dylan that “something is happening here, but you don’t know what it is”, yet now find that they are clueless about the revolutionary changes taking place among the young.

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Recent media and web references

TomorrowToday UK and Graeme Codrington’s presentations have recently been commented on in the media and on blogs.  Here is a selection:

  • Graeme interviewed for Management Issues podcast, on generational changes, the US election and managing young people. Listen to it here.
  • Report back on sessions held at the Academy for Chief Executives.  Read it here.
  • “Blanket advice ‘will not fill generation gaps’” on Citywire - read it here.
  • The launch of Graeme’s new book in South Africa, “Future-Proof Your Child: Parenting the Wired Generation”.  Read it here.
  • An hour long interview on ClassicFM with Dori-Anne Weill, on the launch of Graeme’s book, and how different generations deal with stress.  Listen to the hour long interview here.

What Consumers Really Think of Green PR

Here’s a great little entry from BNET Insights - read it here.

Here’s a quiz: which of the following environmental terms resonates most strongly with consumers:

a ) Conservation

b) Green

c) Energy Efficiency

d) Sustainable

If you answered “b) Green” — you’re wrong! The answer is c) Energy Efficiency. That’s according to Suzanne Shelton of Shelton Group, who conducts annual surveys of consumer attitudes toward environmental issues. Shelton’s research indicates that only 61.5% of consumers have a positive association with the word “green,” 63.5 percent feel positively about “sustainable,” 74% feel positively about “conservation” and a whopping 88.2% feel positively about “energy efficiency.”

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President Obama - a surprise?

At our company, TomorrowToday, we track trends and try and make informed predictions about the future of work.  Recently, my colleague, Keith Coats, was traveling through the USA and was asked what “the world” thought about the elections.  His answer was that most international observers were surprised and concerned that Senator Obama was not predicted to win by a landslide.  That there was even a thought that another Republican, especially a war-mongering one who was trying to win by appealing to very conservative parts of “middle America”, even had a chance was a scary thought.

Of course, one of the issues is that America has not yet dealt with its racial history.  Even this morning, as Barack Obama’s landslide is now a reality, it is clear that he won less votes in the Southern States than any of the previous five Democractic candidates for President have done.  But that is another thought for another day.

This post is just to say: well done President-elect Obama!  Bring on the change.

Its also to say: we told you so.  I hope this doesn’t sound like many of the TV “political analysts” currently flooding the 24-hour news channels and sounding as if the results were assured.  But, its not easy being a futurist.  By the time you need your invoice paid, the future is not yet assured.  By the time your predictions come true, people have forgotten you made them.  So, unfortunately, we do have to sometimes say, “we told you so” just to remind people that we did actually spot the trends and call it correctly.

Those who know our work will know that even before Obama beat Clinton for the Democratic nomination, I was predicting a landslide win for Barack Obama.  Part of this prediction relied on the desire for change evidenced in all major democracies in recent months.  Part of the prediction relied on the fact that we have predicting some form of economic correction for some time (I wish we had been able to predict the timing and severity of the current downturn), part of it was that if and when the debate turned from international issues (America’s euphemism for foreign military interventions) to national issues (euphemism for America’s economy and self-interested self-interests), and another part was the impact of the generations (age) of each of the candidates on the voters, and a final piece of the puzzle was the new “Generation Y” voters who came out to campaign and vote in record numbers.

Obama by a landslide.  Not a surprise to us.  But certainly a relief that it is now reality.  America - the ever changing, ever adapting nation - is once again forever changed.

New Book: Future-Proof Your Child, by Graeme Codrington

Book Launch:

Future-proof Your Child by Nikki Bush and Graeme Codrington

Future Proof Your Child - Launch Invite

Penguin Books is pleased to invite you to the launch of Nikki Bush and Graeme Codrington’s Future-proof Your Child, an essential book for 21st-century parents.


“Stop the world, I want to get off!” is the regular refrain of time-pressured parents today. “Give me an experience and I’ll promise you a relationship,” is the mantra of their children. The world has changed. The future has changed. Childhood is changing. Raising children has never been more challenging – or potentially rewarding.

Here’s a book purpose-built to help you take control.

Proceeds from sales at the event will go to the Play with a Purpose foundation. We’ll see you there!

Event Details

Future-Proof Your ChildBook Details


Another - new - reason to take Generation Y seriously

There is a mountain of media wordage about “generation y” at the moment. This group of young people has been variously defined as those born from 1978, 1984, 1989 and 1990 until present (or year 2000). However you define them, this is the youngest generation of employees and customers impacting the world of work at the moment. Their earliest generational memory was of the momentous shifts that shook the world in 1989 (Tiananmen Square, the Berlin Wall comes down, Romania is freed from dictatorship, the Communist Party is banned in Russia, America invades Panama - just to name a few. Oh, and Nelson Mandela was released from jail in February 1990). The Internet and mobile phones have been ubiquitous in their lives as long as they can remember, and the world has become increasingly “hot, flat and crowded” in their lifetime.

So, it’s vital to understand them as potential employees and customers. A Google search - or reading entries on our blog - will get you started. You can also check out our presentation on Making the Most of the Millennials.

But, and this is important, there is one other VERY important reason to take them seriously. They are already starting their own businesses. They are likely to be the most successful young entrepreneurs of all time. And you need to be aware of who they are and how they will compete with you over the next few years.

Probably the best article written on this comes from Inc magazine’s October 2008 edition. Read the article, Cool, Determined & Under 30. This is how they describe the piece: They are running businesses in fields as diverse as Wi-Fi and fashion, blogging and music. Combined, they manage nearly 600 employees and have raised more than $100 million from investors. They have graduated from (and, on occasion, dropped out of) some of the very best schools in the country. They are collaborative, creative, and — above all — confident. And here’s one more fact: All of them were born after October 31, 1978.

Navigating Through the Financial Crisis, by Booz CEO

TomorrowToday has done some work with Booz Allen Hamilton over the years, so I was really interested to be send an email containing a letter sent to all Booz staff by their CEO, Shumeet Banerji. Here is what I was sent (a quick Internet search shows this has been duplicated a lot of times, but the original is here, I think).

Navigating Through the Financial Crisis
A note from Shumeet Banerji to Booz & Company clients

I have been asked many times over the past few weeks what we think of the economic crisis—and how Booz & Company and our clients might be affected. My observations are backed with a particular form of data—the recent views of business leaders in some of the most important places in the world. For I am writing this on a flight back to London from Beijing, having just attended the World Economic Forum’s Tianjin summer conference—and having spent the previous two weeks visiting Booz & Company clients in Asia, Europe, and the Americas.

So. Is this the end of Capitalism? What caused this? When will it end?

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Graeme Codrington in the media

TomorrowToday’s global keynote presenter, Dr Graeme Codrington, has been featured in two recent media profiles on opposite ends of the world. In South Africa, he was profiled on MarketingWeb’s online magazine as a “trend forecaster”. Read The Marketingweb Interview: Dr Graeme Codrington, Mandy de Waal.

In the UK, Graeme spoke at the Institute of Financial Planners earlier this month, and was reveiwed and quoted in the Financial Times. Read Industry’s bubble is about to burst, IFP conference hears by Joy Dunbar.

Managers, ethics and a commitment for the future

In the wake of the world financial crisis, the analysis of “what went wrong” has started. Not surprisingly, one of the first groups of people singled out is managers. Here are some excellent thoughts from The Economist and the Harvard Business Review.

First, do no harm

Oct 7th 2008
From Economist.com

Do bosses need their own Hippocratic Oath?

ALREADY the managers of many of the world’s leading financial firms have been found wanting. Now, as the world’s economy slows, attention will turn to managers of non-financial firms, to see if they are any better prepared for the rainy day that was bound to come sooner or later.

It will be no surprise if soaring bankruptcies demonstrate that their risk management was just as inept, and just as focused on maximising short-term profits (and their pay packets) without thinking too hard about what would happen when the good times ended.

Why is this failure so unsurprising? In a new article in the Harvard Business Review, Rakesh Khurana and Nitin Nohria, who teach at the Harvard Business School, argue that the problem is literally a lack of professionalism. Contrasting corporate managers with doctors and lawyers, the authors title their article with their argument: “It’s Time to Make Management a True Profession”.

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PERMANENT WHITEWATER: Fluid Leadership in Chaotic Environments

I subscribe to the free e-zine from Wharton Business School. You can sign up and read it online here.

Here is an article about leadership in turbulent times by Gregory Shea and Robert E. Gunther. I highly recommend you read it, and sign up for their e-zine.

Kayak whitewaterIn the summer of 2005, a group of a dozen kayakers on a private expedition set out to navigate 225 miles of the Colorado River as it winds through the Grand Canyon. One of the largest rapids in their course is known as “Hermit,” and the guides they met along the way warned that rocks on the riverbed had recently shifted, opening up a churning cauldron of water so ferocious it had already upended a 30-foot motor launch, the water-borne equivalent of a tour bus. Navigating the Hermit would be most difficult for the three rafts packed with supplies for the kayakers on their multi-day excursion.

The leader of the group, who had been down the river twice before, had waited 15 years for a hard-to-obtain private permit for the expedition and then invited a group of more than a dozen paddling friends from the Philadelphia Canoe Club to join him. He led the three rafts and deputized one of the most experienced paddlers to lead the kayakers. Many of the members of the expedition were trained in the basic principles of whitewater rescue but they had not trained at all in meeting the challenge that they would face that day.

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Leadership matters: Africa’s new leaders herald a new dawn

My friends at South Africa: The Good News are writing a new book. A more ambitious project it is “Africa: the Good News”. It will be out in November 2008, and you can order advanced copies at a discount by contacting Leanne Nimmo at leanne@sagoodnews.co.za.

Here is an extract from one of the chapters on leadership. It comes from their latest e-zine.

History has shown time and again that societies are made or broken by the few individuals who lead them.

It is difficult to imagine where the USA would be today without the efforts of one man, Martin Luther King, Jr., who brought about racial equality in that nation. It is also hard to imagine where India would be today without Mahatma Ghandi’s efforts to free his country from colonial rule, or where South Africa would be today without the collective efforts of three people: Nelson Mandela, FW De Klerk & Desmond Tutu.

In the arena of science and technology, it is hard to imagine our world today without the efforts of exceptional individuals like Bill Gates of Microsoft, Steve Jobs of Apple, or Larry Page & Sergei Brin of Google. The same holds true in the fields of education, healthcare, music, drama, journalism and sport. A few individuals change the world. These individuals - the leaders of society - determine the path of history.

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Let the crowd decide (if you have a bestselling book or not)

Founded by HarperCollins, Authonomy is a new community that invites unpublished and self-published authors to post at least 10,000 words of a fiction or non-fiction manuscript for visitors to read online.

Visitors can review and recommend books, and can showcase their five favourite submissions on a virtual bookshelf that’s viewable from their profile page. Authonomy keeps track of the number of recommendations a book receives and ranks writers accordingly. Readers are also ranked, based on how good they’ve been at spotting books that make it to the top of Authonomy’s charts. To help authors make it from computer screen to printed book, once a month the top five books are delivered to the desks of an editorial board made up of international HarperCollins commissioning editors.

The website is free to use both for readers and writers, and HarperCollins hopes the wisdom of the crowds will help them unsource potential hits that individual editors or agents might otherwise miss, or just don’t have the time to read. Needless to say, the site could also prove to be a good marketing tool once manuscripts are actually published, since authors won’t have to build a fan base from scratch.

Managing Temporary Companies

I was sent a text copy of an article entitled, “The Dawn of the E-Lance Economy: Are big companies becoming obsolete?, written by Thomas W. Malone and Robert J. Laubacher. A quick online search shows that it was published in the Harvard Business Review in Sep-Oct 1998.

In the article, they talk about companies developing with temporary workers and flexible teams, becoming more networked than hierarchical. It’s a good read - made even more impressive when you realise it was written a full ten years ago, when not everyone had Internet access or would text everyone on anything.

Towards the end, they turn their attention to the implications for management. This is worth reading, even if out of context. See below…

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Tips to Improve Interaction Among the Generations

It seems that just about everyone is talking about generations and how to manage the mix of generations in the office these days. I was sent this interesting summary of generational values from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association Office of Diversity (USA).

It’s a bit simplistic, but it’s a nice summary.

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The Millennials in Journalism

I was recently sent this article by email. I tracked it down to a journalism website, The Communicator. It’s a pretty good summary of the Millennial generation, with some insights into how they are changing media newsrooms. Interesting.

Cover Story: The Millennials

From: The Communicator, September 2007

Members of the next generation are graduating college and taking jobs in newsrooms. Who are they? How do they think? How do you manage them? How do they manage you?

By Stacey Woelfel

News director J.J. Murray has a battle on his hands. It’s a battle of wills and a battle of wits that he fights constantly with the job seekers and new hires he encounters at KIMT-TV in Mason City, IA, a newsroom that sees a lot of entry-level talent straight out of college.

The young journalists are bringing a great deal of skill to the newsroom but often give the impression they think a diploma proves they’ve learned all they need to know about the craft. He tells the story of one reporter who argued the finer points of copy editing in the middle of his first script review; when Murray told the reporter that he preferred to have people’s titles precede their names, which is common style for script writing, the reporter continued to disagree. “Some—on the first week on the job—have battled me on what they think is right and wrong,” Murray says, “instead of being here to learn.”

These journalists are part of the Millennial Generation, a cohort that thinks and behaves far differently from what Murray has previously seen in his two decades of news management and teaching. It’s not that this group of twenty-somethings makes for better or worse journalists than previous generations, but that they have to be managed differently. Generational researchers say news directors have a lot to learn about what attracts and motivates most of the applicants they will see in the coming decade.

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The Power of Imagination

JK Rowling gave the 2008 graduation address at Harvard. You can read and watch it here.

I think it’s excellent, focusing on the benefits of learning from failure and imagination.

This section is the best for me:

Unlike any other creature on this planet, humans can learn and understand, without having experienced. They can think themselves into other peoples minds, imagine themselves into other peoples places. Of course, this is a power, like my brand of fictional magic, that is morally neutral. One might use such an ability to manipulate, or control, just as much as to understand or sympathise. And many prefer not to exercise their imaginations at all. They choose to remain comfortably within the bounds of their own experience, never troubling to wonder how it would feel to have been born other than they are….

If you choose to use your status and influence to raise your voice on behalf of those who have no voice; if you choose to identify not only with the powerful, but with the powerless; if you retain the ability to imagine yourself into the lives of those who do not have your advantages, then it will not only be your proud families who celebrate your existence, but thousands and millions of people whose reality you have helped transform for the better. We do not need magic to change the world, we carry all the power we need inside ourselves already: we have the power to imagine better.

Detailed Introduction to Generational Theory

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Detailed Introduction to Generational Theory

“Baby Boomer”, “Generation X”, the “Millennial generation”, “Generation Y” - these and other similar terms to describe groups of people of different ages have become fairly well known and well used in recent years. These terms arise from a theory that attempts to explain how different generations develop different value systems, and the impact that this has on how younger and older people interact with the world around them and with each other.

This understanding of different generations and the “gap” between them has many applications in all areas of life, from parents interacting with children, to sales people selling to younger or older clients, to managers who work with teams of people of different ages.

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Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

I was sent this short email about Russian writer and Nobel laureate Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn who died on Sunday, aged 89. I thought I’d share it.

His outspoken criticism of communist totalitarianism earned him many years of imprisonment in Stalin’s infamous Gulags and many more years in exile. His rare courage was underpinned by an unshakable commitment to truth and a deep sense of life purpose.

He was, however, also no advocate of the Western model, believing that Western society was eroding due to its whimsical pursuit of material well-being, its valuing of rights over obligations, and its misguided granting of destructive & irresponsible freedoms. Here are the closing words of his famous address “A World Split Apart” at Harvard University, 30 years ago. His questions are hardly less relevant to us today:

“Our lives will have to change if we want to save life from self-destruction. … Is it true that man is above everything? Is there no Superior Spirit above him? Is it right that man’s life and society’s activities have to be determined by material expansion in the first place? Is it permissible to promote such expansion to the detriment of our spiritual integrity? … We shall have to rise to a new height of vision … No-one on earth has any other way left but upward.”

John Mauldin on South Africa

John Mauldin, one of the US’s top investment advisors - recently voted second only to Warren Buffet as an investment guru - was in South Africa last week. On his return to the US, he wrote this remarkable article on his visit…

I start this week’s letter somewhere over the Atlantic, halfway through an 11-hour flight from Frankfurt to Dallas. It has been an altogether marvellous 11 days in South Africa, speaking to over 1,000 people at 12 venues, giving a half dozen media interviews, and meeting with many individuals.

This week, I want to give you some impressions of not only South Africa, but talk a little about emerging markets in general.

Finding Value in South Africa

I realized about halfway through my recent trip that it had been some time since I was in an emerging-market country. I have been to over 50 countries over the past 20 years, but recently most of my travels have been to Europe and Canada, with the occasional vacation trip to Mexico.

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The Future of Publishing’s History

I am not the greatest fan of the publishing industry. The first paperback book, a massive innovation in the industry, was published this week in 1935, and sometimes it seems that was the last innovation the industry has seen. As a published author, the lead times in the industry are seriously frustrating and the processes archaic. But, hey, I suppose I shouldn’t bite the hand that feeds me (well, part feeds me - in a world dominated by the increasing valuation of intellectual capital and decreasing value of manual labour and intermediation, the publishing industry, with their paltry standard 12-15% of wholesale price paid in royalties stands as a bastion of anochronism).

But, today, I read of something that inspires some hope in me that the wonderful people of the publishing industry do have an eye on the future. Faber are going to be publishing out of print books on a once-off, on-demand basis. They have started with a limited catalog, but the concept itself could (and should) easily be extended to all books everywhere. With digital printing and even e-books, it should be very little extra work to take any book anywhere and reproduce it. Check out the announcement and details here. A nice idea, and one that I hope is copied, and inspires further innovation.

Just do It turns 20

Sometimes a product name, a slogan or an advertising campaign becomes lodged in societal consciousness, and embedded in our language forever. To generations of young people, such key phrases can instantly bring back memories of childhood and another time. I was recently listening to a radio phone in show in South Africa, and being reminded of “it’s not inside, it’s on top” and Panasonic’s “quest for zero defect”. You can do a fun test on your memories here. And there is a great list (that you can add to, of course) at Wikipedia.

Anyway, this is a short post to say that Nike’s “Just Do It” is 20 years old. Nice one!

Reflections on Africa

I suppose Nelson Mandela’s 90th birthday is as good a time as any to briefly reflect on Africa. As an African by both birth and choice, I must admit that my heart is often broken by this continent. Albeit that Africans are resilient, remarkably adaptable and generally hospitable and friendly (among the black languages of South Africa, for example, there is no indigenous word for “stranger”), there never seems to be a week without some tragic tale emerging from the 52 nations of this mighty continent. I am not saying that everything is as bad as the global news headlines often make it out to be. But, Africa nevertheless seems to have massive problems when compared to the issues facing other regions of the world. Why is this?

One thing that has helped me recently is reading Jeffrey Sach’s “The End of Poverty” in which he lists the major causes of extreme poverty (and most of Africa is in this category), showing that many of the factors that cause African poverty are beyond the control of people. Africa’s mosquitoes carry malaria, whereas India’s do not, for example. Africa has no major navigable rivers (OK, there is one, but that is all within the DRC). Africa has the worst top soil of any continent (except, I suppose, Antarctica). And Africa’s tribes are more divided by culture and language than any other continent (in South Africa, for example, there are eleven official languages. In Nigeria, there are over 100 unique, indigenous languages). So, Africa is partly as it is due simply to the lottery of geography.

But, in the 21st century, that does not explain the whole story. It does not explain Sudan, for example. And, it most certainly does not explain Zimbabwe.

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