A breakup, bowiechick, webcams and Logitech’s increased sales

I am currently at the F-Secure partners conference in Vienna, Austria, and have been listening to Richard Gatarski speak about a passion for social media. One incredible story illustrates the power that new social media forms have to influence brands, and how little many established companies (even those who sell products and services that are designed for this new world) know about this.

In March 2006, Melody, a teenager better known by her YouTube name, “Bowiechick”, was feeling pretty depressed. She had just broken up with her boyfriend. So, she decided to record a vlog (a video blog entry). In order to cheer herself up, she experimented with some cool software that came with her webcam. By the end of the 75 second video, she had had a bit of fun and was feeling better. She posted the result at YouTube (see it here). This clip has now been viewed nearly 2 million times!

As you could anticipate, a few of her friends saw it, and wrote notes to her, encouraging her to cheer up and move on. But then people started asking her about the software she used to make the video itself. More and more people asked, so she created a little video to explain how her Logitech webcam and software worked. This 2 minute video has been viewed over 3 million times. Watch it here.

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Something strange has happened on our blog site. This post has been moved to here. Sorry for the hassle of another click…

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Mandela’s release is announced – 20 years ago today

1989 was a momentous year all around the world. I wrote about it last year, as each month we rolled through the “twenty years on” anniversaries of everything from Tiananmen Square (June), the Ayatollah’s funeral chaos in Iran (June), hands across the Baltic Way (August), the Berlin Wall (November), Prague’s Velvet Revolution (November), Ceaucescu trial and death (December) and the banning of the Communist Party in Russia (December).

In my home country, South Africa, it took a few extra weeks, but we added our own amazing memory to this list.

On Friday, 2 February, 1990, FW de Klerk, the State President opened Parliament for the new year. In his “State of the Nation” address he stunned the world, and all of us in South Africa, by very calmly and simply saying the following:

“People serving prison sentences merely because they were members of one of these organisations, or because they committed another offence which was merely an offence because a prohibition on one of the organisations was in force, will be identified and released.”

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3-d TV is here

This weekend, Sky TV in the UK will become the first to broadcast a live sports event in 3-d. This is a preview of regular channel that will be launched by Sky in April. It will be available at no extra cost to anyone with an HD box.

Read the press release here.

The way we access data and engage with media is changing rapidly. The (horribly named) iPad was launched yesterday, amidst much hype (Apple knows how to do this, don’t they?). Small, portable, handheld devices, with unbelievable resolution and engaging visuals are the way of the future. 3-d images form a big part of that, too, I am sure.

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How to keep your staff as the recovery begins

The UK is officially out of recession, as are most countries around the world. You couldn’t call it “bouyant” yet, but the recovery has started. Over the next few months and years, it will gain momentum. One of the unintended consequences of the recovery will be that many companies will lose their best staff. We have spoken about this before.

In reading an article from Deloittes again, I thought that it would be worth repeating the advice they gave for how to stop your best staff leaving in the next year.

When economic conditions improve, a certain amount of voluntary turnover is inevitable. But if addressed early and managed correctly, the turnover doesn’t have to be debilitating. Here are some small steps to consider taking now to avoid big problems later:

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America must act now to set up the next 50 years of economic growth

I first saw Elizabeth Warren about 6 months ago on Jon Stewart’s The Daily Show. She is the chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel created to monitor TARP (The Troubled Asset Relief Program – central to America’s bailout). In the few minutes she had on the show, she gave an overview of American economic development that was elegant and stunning. I like her a lot. (If you are in a part of the world that can access Stewart’s videos on his website, then check out that interview here – part 1 and part 2).

This past Tuesday night, she appeared on The Daily Show again (see video here – it’s also available (for now) on YouTube here – in my experience this will be deleted soon).

Her message was simple, clear, and vaguely frightening. She believes that right now the American economy is being rebuilt. What we do in the next few months will set a foundation for how the economy works for the next 50 years. She believes that the American middle class is allowing Wall Street and big business to destroy it. She said: “It is simple. This is America’s middle class. We’ve hacked at it and chipped at it and pulled on it for 30 years now. And now there’s no more to do. Either we fix this problem going forward or the game really is over.”

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A banking revolution?

Accenture recently put out a report entitled, “Banking 2012: Preparing for a revolution”. How I’d love to believe they are right. The executive summary says that the banks that will succeed are those that focus on transparency, simplicity and renewed customer-centricity. Amen to that, I’d say. But there is more to this report than just those obvious statements.

The very foundations of the industry of banking have been shaken. The institution of banking is changing. The rules for success and failure have been rewritten, and legislation is now being crafted to push that even further. These are unprecedented times. This report by Accenture sheds some light on the very immediate future, and is well worth a read. Read the summary at Accenture’s own website, or right click here to download a PDF from their site. Or read extracts from it below.
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Generations and Culture

Generational theory attempts to explain some of the differences between young and old people, and how they act, react and interact in different environments. Our value systems are shaped by factors such as culture, religion, gender, personality, class and socio-economics. But they are also shaped by the era in which we are born, and moulded by our peers and the world events that define our formative years. But can generational theory apply equally across different cultures and in different countries? Best selling author of “Mind the Gap” and an international, award winning presenter on the issue of the generation gap, Dr Graeme Codrington, provides his personal perspective….

It will probably be useful to you to know some of my credentials right at the start. My company, TomorrowToday is one of the world’s leading generational consultancies. An important part of our suite of services to clients is an understanding of the generation gap. Our approach is based on multiple sources of research and practical application, including access to the originators of generational theory, Neil Howe and William Strauss, who work out of the USA. We have also done our own extensive research, and have access to country-specific data for South Africa, New Zealand, Mauritius, England, Russia, Hungary, Estonia, Iran, Chile, Australia, China, Japan, the USA and an increasing number of other countries. Our application to different countries is constantly expanding as our team of experts is invited to present and consult around the world – in over 20 countries every year. We have presented in over 50 different countries, covering all the continents. … Continue Reading

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Hollywood, explain this… (Avatar breaks two very different records)

In almost every country it is being shown, James Cameron’s latest movie, Avatar is breaking box office records. It has already made over $ 1 billion, and is well on its way to being the best selling movie of all time.

It is already listed in IMDB’s top 50 greatest movies of all time.

But, in its first week, it was also the most pirated movie of all time with 980,000 illegal downloads of the movie. Hollywood (and the music industry) claim that illegal downloads will destroy their industry and steal money from producers.

So, Hollywood, explain Avatar!

The problem is not with illegal downloads. The problem for you is that quality is now judged more democratically – and more brutally. Good films, and good music, will still sell well. James Cameron is proof of that! Stop whining and fix your industry.

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Good leaders share the pain with their teams

This coming year is likely to see continued difficulties in most companies. Recovery is on its way, but it will be slow, and profits are likely to be low. In this environment, many companies are going to ask staff to forego salary increases (and even possibly accept decreases) and bonuses.

Unfortunately, their bosses are unlikely to do the same.

In the past two decades or so, a two-tier system of reward has emerged, where people at board level and in senior executive teams are treated differently from general staff. When cuts are made, they are asked to contribute much less. Paradoxically, this often happens precisely because the senior executives “pretend” to be treated equally. But let’s be honest: to ask someone earning £ 1,000 a month to take a 10% cut is not the same as asking someone earning £ 12,000 a month to do the same. The more you earn, the more you should be expected to cut. That would be fair.

Worse still, senior executives are not rewarded for the health of the company (which affects long-term growth), but rather for short-term results. They typically attract performance bonuses for cutting costs out of the system – and that can involve pay freezes and redundancies for general staff.

In some companies this year, the basic salaries of all staff will be frozen, including the CEO and senior Execs. But the Execs will have access to bonuses, whereas most other employees cannot look forward to the variable performance pay available to their bosses. Their rewards are not treated the same. This, too, is not fair.

I read a recent report on a particular company that is experiencing just this, and the conclusion was succinctly stated: “Equity is a quality rather like justice. Justice must be seen to be done; equity must be experienced; it must run through an organisation from top to bottom.” I’d put it this way: A good leader shares the pain with his or her followers. If you don’t, they may just stop following.

I still believe that the real people carnage of this recession lies ahead of us, not behind us. What are your thoughts?

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Get used to the cold and blame global warming

This is just a short comment on something I can’t believe I keep hearing in the media. Well, to be honest, I only hear it from those that hold ludicrous beliefs to start with. But I have heard a few times in the last week that “so much for global warming”, or “they said global warming was a problem, hah!”.

The cause of these comments is the longest and coldest period in many decades in the UK. With temperatures in Scotland reaching a frigid -23 Celcius, and London having highs below zero for the last few days, and snow and sleet forecast for next few days, this is a real issue for the UK. It’s cold, and the government is not coping with it. They don’t have enough stock of salt and grit to clear the streets, for example.

Everyone needs to get used to colder winters. They will get more frequent. That’s what “global warming” does. It makes summers hotter and winters colder. “Global warming” does not refer to how it feels to us all year round. It refers to average temperatures over land and sea. “Climate change” is a better phrase to use to describe the problems we will actually experience. Cold winters. Hot summers.

This is not your parent’s future… This is something new. And it’s something we need to deal with. That’s what COP15 was supposed to be about. I hope the winter chills remind the politicians that we need a real, workable, lasting solution. Quickly.

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Five upcoming changes in the way we work

Tammy Erickson, Harvard Business Review contributor and author of multiple books, including Retire Retirement and Workforce Crisis, has written about the five key changes she is expecting in the workplace in 2010. What do you think? Do you agree with her?

1. Two-job norm — More people will maintain two sources of income than ever before. Instead of relying on the onetime holy grail of employment — a salaried job with full benefits — workers will create a series of backup options. For many, especially those in creative or knowledge-based work, this is likely to include becoming entrepreneurs. A second job or even a small entrepreneurial venture provides a safety net, giving workers a small measure of control over their fate in an increasingly unstable environment.
2. Less “off hours” work — Recession-management approaches that made full-time employees take a day a week “off” planted some new questions in the minds of employees who had been working virtually 24×7. What is a “day?” Eight hours? Twenty percent of the time I normally work each week? For many, these questions lead inevitably to: If they only want me to work four days a week, why am I working more than 32 hours? Many companies have come to rely on very long work weeks as staffing cuts lead to more work for the remaining individuals and technology facilitated round-the-clock work. I expect to see more push back this year — in part because many individuals will be spending time advancing their second work option.
3. Competition for discretionary energy — Engagement has been a hot topic in talent management circles for the past decade. But its benefits have focused primarily on attracting and retaining employees. Increasingly, managers’ focus will shift to competing for an employee’s discretionary energy — competing with other priorities in the employee’s life, including other options for work — but also competing against employees who are only “going through the motions.” More and more of the work in today’s economy cannot be done rotely — success requires a spark of extra effort, creativity, collaboration, and innovation.
4. More diverse arrangements — By now, most companies have put a variety of flex work options on the books. In 2010, I believe these arrangements will begin to take hold in significant ways, driven by employee preferences, facilitated by new technologies, supported by new managers who themselves are more comfortable with virtual work.
5. Transparent, “adult” arrangements — My favorite change is the growth in what I like to call “communities of adults” — a philosophy of recasting the employment relationship from one of paternalistic care to adult choice. A simple example is offering a menu of benefit options and letting employees choose those that work best. Further along the spectrum would include encouraging employees to “own” their own feedback process or even set their own compensation levels. These sorts of changes won’t settle in this year, but they’re coming. I expect we’ll see more examples as the year progresses.

Source: HBR blogs

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A looming retirement crisis for Boomers (with lots of opportunities)

We have argued many times on this blog that the Baby Boomers are going to redefine retirement (for example, here, here and here). In fact, we even thought we were very clever using the phrase “retyrement” to describe what we think will actually happen. We’ve had a presentation called “Prime Time” about it. And one of our colleagues started her own consultancy called the refirement network.

We’ve been saying this for at least the last 6 years, so it’s got very little to do with financial downturn of the last two years. Although the recession allowed us to add one more reason why Boomers were not going to retire in the way we think of retirement now. But maybe the recession will cause some Boomers a big headache in this area.

Because many companies will need to find ways to strip out costs over the next few years as the recovery slowly begins, they will think of removing the high remuneration costs for senior staff. The weak economy could very well result in job losses that will force more people to retire early. This would severely scupper Boomers plans to continue working longer.

However, we would argue strongly that this will simply see Boomers become entrepreneurs. We cannot imagine that they will retire gracefully to the “do nothing” state often associated with retirement. Some will move into the voluntary sector. There is therefore a huge opportunity for charities, non-profits, and faith-based organisations to target recruitment campaigns at this generation. I’d say this could work for any organisation that could use more volunteers, from local schools to the World Cup Football competition.

But, many of the Boomers are likely to try and start up their own companies. The opportunities here are boundless. This is a generation that loves consultants – and they’ll be very happy to use some of the early retirement payout to buy consulting services. They’d pay for anything from IT support to virtual secretarial services, and from business mentoring to outsourcing of warehousing and deliveries. Many of them are used to having teams of people do their bidding, and they’d probably pay to have this setup again in their startup businesses.

Given just a few good experiences, they may be able to get their heads around virtual support (such as eLance), but in general, they are a “hands on” and “face to face” generation.

There are huge challenges ahead for the Boomers. This next decade is likely to be a very frustrating one for them. But there are amazing opportunities as well.

What are your thoughts?

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It’s 2010 – where are the flying cars? (OR how you predict the future)

Here we are. It’s 2010. In 1968, Stanley Kubrick brought us “2001: A Space Odyssey“. In 1984 (yes, Orwell would have been proud), Arthur C Clarke’s “2010″ made it to the cinemas. Throughout the 1980s and 90s, “near future” movies tended to be set sometime in 2001 or 2010. Well, here we are. And there are no flying cars. No apocalypse. Sure, we have the Wii, the iPhone, HD TV, surround sound and McDonalds sells salads. Oh, and there’s Dubai.

But trains, planes and cars all go roughly the same speed as 30 years ago (and let’s face it, the biggest advance in that industry in that time has been the hybrid, and the Prius is just plain ugly). Our energy still comes from the same sources, and we don’t wear silver cat suits.

I recently reread the 1970 Toffler classic, “Future Shock“. It’s still the best book of predictions I have read. Not because he predicted the future (he didn’t anticipate the Internet or mobile phones, or even home computers). But rather because his basic thesis was superbly accurate – and defining of our age. He said that the defining feature of the decade after 2000 would be constant change. How right he was.

But all this got me thinking… How do you predict the future? How do you go about predicting the trends that will shape the world in the next decade? This is an important question, because it’s what I do for a living.

In a turbulent world, it is more necessary than ever to have some means of anticipating what the future will be. Anticipating – and responding to – future customer demand, industry competition, legislative constraints, resource availability, labour supply, and all manner of other changes, is an absolutely critical task for every organisation everywhere.

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Free video course on Managing Generation Y at work

In December 09, Graeme Codrington recorded a series of short videos on Managing Generation Y at Work. This was done with Success.tv in London. These videos are now available for free:

The videos are:

• The New World of Work – an introduction to what we do, and the concept that drives our thinking
• The New Generation
• Managing Young Talent
• Personalising the Workplace
• Managing Meetings in the digital age

Feel free to use these videos in your companies. But, if you’d like more details or have one of our team speak live at your next event, why not contact us and make a booking enquiry.

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After Shock interview podcast

One of our most read blog posts of all times has been “After Shock” – a look at the five forces that will cause disruptive change in the next decade. Since we posted it in December, it has received huge interest and has had numerous requests for republishing and extracts.

One request came from Peter Clayton of Total Picture Radio in the USA. The radio interview ended up stretching over two shows, and is now available online as a podcast (two MP3 files). The T.I.D.E.S. of Change, Part One: Introduction and Technology, and then Part 2: What Do You Need to Know to Be an Winner in the New Normal?

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2010 will be an important – but bad – year for green business

Cop15, the global conference in Copenhagen last year, produced about as much as anyone could have expected (a lot less than was hoped) – a fudged solution that requires much further discussion and negotiation. And in the UK, the CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme (the renamed Carbon Reduction Commitment) initial deadline for creating baselines was pushed out a year to April 2011. It’s unlikely the USA will be able to get to a final cap and trade agreement into legislation during 2010 (the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 must still pass through the Senate). While China made positive noises before Cop15, it seems that they were really sticky in Copenhagen and were a big reason that the final agreement did not include any operational terms.

With all of these issues in mind, it seems clear that 2010 is likely to be a year of talks and discussions, but very little action. For companies involved in green industries this will be frustrating. Many of these companies are startups, gearing up for the expected demand in sustainability issues (technology, consulting, business processes, engineering, energy, and much more). But many of them won’t survive another year of waiting and delays in implementation and client demand. It seems likely they will have to.

Companies that are keen on implementing green strategies (for whatever reason) have probably started to do this already. Companies looking for an excuse to delay implementation, however, will have plenty of excuses in 2010. They’re likely to keep delaying. They’ll do so until they’re forced to change (and that’s the main reason I support emissions trading legislation!).

So, 2010 will not be a good year for those involved in the sustainability industry. But it is an important year nevertheless. It’s important to continue lobbying. It’s important to continue to search for the best solutions and the best processes that will not only produce the best outcomes, but will also be compelling for those who are not yet convinced that anything needs to be done. It’s an important year for science – more must be done to show the scientific evidence of climate change and the need for changes in our lifestyles. And it’s an important year for venture capitalists, who must try to separate out those startups that truly have something to offer from those that are just taking a chance on the bandwagon (remember the shakeup in the online IT industry just 10 years ago?).

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Why unemployment will rise as the economy recovers in 2010

This is a simple insight, but might help a few people as they think ahead to 2010. At this time of year it is fashionable to make all sorts of predictions for the year ahead – since I am a futurist and make my money by helping people to make sense of the new world of work, I’d better put my money where my mouth is.

I believe that 2010 will see a slow, but consistent economic recovery throughout the world. I would hope that the new UK government would have the guts to cleanse the banking industry, by demanding a full audit and accounting of their liabilities. But I doubt this will happen. Nevertheless it appears that the last of great banking surprises has now come and gone, and that we can start to rebuild. Growth will probably start first in technology, medical and green industries, with a slow growth in construction. But construction has a problem coming as government money that has been brought forward from future years runs out. And that will probably be the biggest factor that inhibits growth and keeps it slow and steady.

One indicator, however, will put some people off and confuse many pundits. Unemployment is likely to rise and keep rising in 2010. Many will take this as a sign that the recovery is not happening. But they would be wrong. This is a simple lesson in knowing what a trend actually tells you.

In most countries, the unemployment figure is actually the number of people who have signed up for unemployment benefits or assistance. In many countries, it is actually the number of people who are actively seeking work. In the midst of a deep recession, as we have experienced over the past year, many people who are actually unemployed don’t bother to register themselves as job seekers. They reason that there’s no point. But as news of a recovery begins to seep through the media, their hopes begin to rise and they sign up as job seekers, hoping to find work.

And that’s why official unemployment figures will probably rise as the economy begins to recover.

It’s not going to be easy to be a strategist next year. 2010 is going to be a wild year. And my guess is that fortune will favour the brave… and the well informed.

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British Airways cabin crew on strike – how to strike back!

If you’re a regular reader of this blog, I hope you’re expecting a calm analysis of yesterday’s announcement of a 12 day strike of British Airways cabin crew, effectively grounding the airline over the busy Christmas holiday season (remember schools only break up this coming Friday in the UK, so the holidays are for two weeks starting this weekend). Well, you’re going to be disappointed. As frequent travelers, all of us at TomorrowToday tend to lose our rag with airlines and airports. I am normally a calm individual, proud of being unflappable. But put me in an airport, and somehow the red mist descends…

So, here is what I can’t understand.

The cabin crew are going on strike because they’re upset. Their strike is designed is to “hurt management”, which means “to reduce company profits”. They say that they do not want to hurt customers. This is complete nonsense. If they wanted to hurt profits, they would announce a strike for at least three months in advance. There are very few people who have not already booked and paid for their flights over the next month. So, yes, BA will have to give refunds, but actually they will save money, since there will be massively reduced operational costs. The biggest losers here are not management, but the customers. And most of those are families, hard hit by the recession of the past year, who have scraped and saved up for a holiday abroad. They will lose not only their airfare, but may have to forfeit the holiday and the costs of hotels, cars, etc. And BA management will bu unhurt.

So, the cabin crews must not try that line on me. Their goal is disruption and chaos. The outcome will be heartache and pain.

… Continue Reading

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Who owns the moon?

This is not a frivolous question. China is making great strides towards a presence in space – as is India. Russia, the UK, the EU and the USA are already there. And it’s not all about national pride and the “because it’s there” motivation. It is highly likely that there are some very useful and very valuable minerals on the moon. And right now, it could very well be a “first come, first served” scenario for their usage. Oh, and let’s not forget that Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic is also in the mix and should soon have the ability to launch and relaunch space vehicles at will. So, this will soon be a government and private interest issue.

Can you own property on the moon? This question may have to be answered sooner than you think.

Earlier in 2009, a NASA probe crashed into the moon’s surface and discovered frozen water – they claim lots of it. This makes establishing a base on the moon a lot more feasible. There are lots of reasons someone might want a moon base. There would be military benefits and scientific ones, too. But most important, there would be commercial ones too. There are some amazing mining opportunities on the moon, including huge quantities of helium 3 which could be used to generate clean energy on earth.

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Capturing the Asian Opportunity

S+B (Strategy + Business) is a great ezine from Booz & Co. This week’s edition focuses on where multinational companies might want to focus as the recession draws to an end and an upturn begins. And the place to look is probably Asia – if you have a clear focus. Read their article at their website, or an extract below.

Capturing the Asian Opportunity
Economic recovery in China, India, and elsewhere in the region could be the strongest source of sustained global growth for years to come.
by Andrew Cainey, Suvojoy Sengupta, and Steven Veldhoen

In September 2008, the global financial crisis hit Asia like a tidal wave, flooding in from the U.S. and Europe. Within weeks, Asian GDP growth rates began to tumble: China’s annual growth rate dropped from 13 percent in 2007 to about 9 percent in 2008, India’s slipped from 9 percent to below 6 percent, and Singapore’s plunged from 8 percent to less than 4 percent. Underlying these stark statistics were significant declines in exports. In March 2008, China and India had boasted year-over-year export growth rates of more than 30 percent; nine months later, both were well into negative territory. Foreign direct investment in these countries, and in Korea, Japan, and the nations of Southeast Asia, fell significantly as well.

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Which movie does that come from? (Wonder know more!)

I picked up a tweet recently which talked of a great new resource called MovieClips. Simple concept – you can remember a line from a movie, but cannot for the life of you remember which movie it’s from. You could search the Internet Movie Database or Google, of course, and find a text reference to it.

But why not search a movie database where the output is both the movie AND the clip you were looking for? That’s what Movie Clips does – 3 minute clips from movies with an exciting search feature. They have kicked off with about 12,000 clips, so you won’t find everything you’re looking for. But hopefully it will be supported and will grow. What a great idea!

But, I want to say more about this. When I checked it out, it told me that the content was only available in the USA and Canada, and that I should email them (link was provided) if I was from another country and wanted access. I was disappointed, but sent the email anyway. I expected very little. The next day, I received an email (from a real human being) saying that they had just switched on the functionality for the UK and that I had access. Oh, and could I comment on the speed and usability, too, please. They’re phasing in different countries, so as not to overwhelm their servers. Good thinking! Great service! Excellent connection! Superb product!

I’m already a huge fan! Long live MovieClips. Check them out.

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Seth Godin on How to protect your ideas in the digital age

I have never done much to try and protect my intellectual capital. Some of my friends who are in the same profession – authors, speakers, consultants – agree with me, and others think I am nuts. My view is that the best way to keep ahead of the pack is not to protect what I have done, but to simply do more and better than anyone else does.

Seth Godin recently wrote about this issue on his blog, and he sums up my thoughts precisely.
Read his blog here, or below.

How to protect your ideas in the digital age

If we’re in the idea business, how to protect those ideas?

… Continue Reading

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A lesson in personalisation – your very own font

One of the trends we’ve been tracking for some time at TomorrowToday is the growing desire for personalisation. This is more than mere customisation. It is about creating something completely unique and tailored specifically for a particular individual. Nike was one of the first to make the news with their offering of customised shoes – you bought the shoes online and then selected a customised tagline to emboss onto the shoes. (They had some fun with people selecting offensive slogans, and had to have a level of censorship that ultimately backfired on them. But the idea was the right one).

I keep my eyes open for examples of customisation – big and small. Here’s a small one, but for someone who spends a significant time in front of a computer screen, it certainly grabbed my attention. Fontcapture.com will allow you to create your very own custom font face. It’s free and will take you about ten minutes to do. Download the font form, write your font face on their template, scan it, upload and wait a minute or so for the font file to be sent to you. Simple. Neat. Nice!

I don’t know how I’ll use this new font yet, but it’s nice to see my handwriting unfolding across my screen as I dictate this blog entry using voice recognition. One day, I’ll be replaced by this machine. I hope people notice if that happens….

(PS – for a more indepth look at the trend of personalisation, check out TrendHunter Pro’s report on it here).

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Book Review – Free: The Future of a Radical Price

Chris Anderson is the editor of Wired, one of my favourite magazines. He has written two great books based on HBR articles. The first was “The Long Tail” – an awesome concept (Google it). Now, he has offered us another view of how the Internet is changing the world. It’s “Free”. A deputy editor at The Economist (my favourite magazine of all) has written a review. You can read it here, or below. Buy the book at Amazon.co.uk or Amazon.com or Kalahari – South Africa.

Chris Anderson is a guru of the information age. Under his editorship, Wired, the voice of the digital world, has won zillions of prizes. His speeches on the economics of the internet command vast sums. He’s a brilliant journalist; I know that, having worked with him before he was a big shot. But it is as an author that Anderson has gained most fame. He writes, broadly, about how digital technology has made the world a better place. His first book, The Long Tail, was hugely influential. In the bricks-and-mortar world, it said, in which the costs of marketing and distribution are high, companies make money by selling vast quantities of a few blockbuster items. In the digital world, in which the costs of marketing and distribution are low, companies can make money by selling small numbers of lots of different items.

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S+B’s Best Business Books of 2009

Booz & Co’s Strategy + Business ezine is one of my favourites, and one I always make time to read. Last week’s edition looked at the best business books of 2009, selected by their top team, and helpfully categorised.

If you want to read their reasoning, and some excellent background comments, start here. All I am going to do is list the books (and make it easy for you to buy them – choose from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk or Kalahari.net – for South Africa):

… Continue Reading

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After Shock: the five trends disrupting business in the next 5 years

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As the world slowly emerges out of recession over the next few years, it will become increasingly clear that this was more than just an economic downturn. Disruptive forces are significantly reshaping the world of work. Some of these changes have been brewing for a decade or more – and now this recession has exacerbated their influence and speeded up their effects. Companies that have survived the downturn need to shift their focus to surviving the upturn. We are not ever going to “get back to normal” – a new normal is emerging for everyone, everywhere.

Understanding the forces that are driving this disruptive change will give an organisation the insights needed to adjust their systems, structures and methods and gain a significant competitive advantage in the next 3 to 5 years. It is therefore essential to provide not just senior leaders, but all staff throughout your company, with a framework of thinking about this “new normal”. You want them to work together to take advantage of the opportunities that will emerge.

There are at least five key drivers of disruptive change that every organisation in every industry needs to track. These are the T.I.D.E.S. of change. (It’s a corny acronym, I know, but hopefully it will help with both remembering the framework, as well as making it easy to use on a regular basis in team meetings and informal conversations throughout your organisation). Here then are the key drivers of disruptive change in the next 3 to 5 years, and some questions to ask yourself and your teams as you plan to respond to them:

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Book review: Upstarts

I was sent the following book review from a trusted friend. I have not read the book yet, but have it on order, and trust the guy who sent me the review. It looks like a good read…

Upstarts!: How GenY Entrepreneurs are Rocking the World of Business and 8 Ways You Can Profit from Their Success was written by Donna Fenn who has been an expert on small business trends and entrepreneurship for over 20 years. Buy this book at Amazon.co.uk or Kalahari.net.

In Donna’s book, she discusses how Generation Y is changing the business world and creating a whole new crop of entrepreneurs. Inspired by the success of past generations of entrepreneurs, these young entrepreneurs are creating cools startups that are changing the way we do things.

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Don’t treat all the Boomers the same

I recently had a chance to have interact with Warren Evans, a top international speaker and futurist. Like our team at TomorrowToday, Warren tracks the trends that are shaping the world of work, and has an interest in demographics, technology and other key drivers of change.

Having heard Warren talk about demographics, I checked out the video snippet on his website. He makes a great point. Simply put, he is skeptical about generations. Actually, he is skeptical about how people use generational theory as a blunt instrument. They talk about “Boomers” or “Gen Y” as if everyone born in one twenty year period is identical. This is an abuse of the theory, of course, but is often how it is used. At very least, one has to take into account the cuspers (those born between the generations). But one should also consider that younger and older cohorts within a generation are often quite different too.

As Warren points out, treating the Boomers as a homogenous group is not only silly, it’s also dangerous. The pace of change in the 1950s and 60s was so fast that what may at first glance appear to be only one generation (“the Boomers”) is in fact three generations. If you were born in 1947, you had a very different growing up experience from someone born in 1966. The promise of demography is that we can predict what someone aged 64 will do (and that you will do the same things at age 64 that people who were 64 in 2001 or 1995 or 1975 did). Yet, younger Boomers and older Boomers had different starting points, different life experiences and now live in different life stages.

I think Warren is right about this. As Einstein is reported to have said, “The sign of a true genius is the ability to simplify complex information as much as possible. But not more so.” Generational theory has a compelling pop psychology appeal to it. But some people have simplified it too much.

We’re working on a new model that brings together the concept of younger and older cohorts, and integerates this with the concept of cuspers. Of course, we also have to consider other psychographic influences, such as religion, gender, culture, class and socioeconomics. So, segmentation models are tough to get right. But the value of doing them properly is enormous. It allows one to deliver on the promise of demographics by understanding how behaviour will change as new lifestages are reached.

That’s the kind of stuff that gets me out of bed in the morning! Feel free to contact me if you want to chat about this more: graeme@tomorrowtoday.uk.com

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The James Martin 21st Century School – understanding the future

I am a huge fan of James Martin. Not the celebrity chef. Nor the inventor of the aircraft ejection seat. Nor any of the other famous James Martins. I am a huge fan of James Martin the futurist and author of one of the best books of all time, “The Meaning of the 21st Century” (see a previous post about the book here).

I recently discovered that a think tank “school” has been created at Oxford university, and named in his honour. It’s the James Martin 21st century school. It seems to be a fantastic institution. You can see an 8 minute video of the Dean of the school, ex-South African, Ian Goldin, speaking recently at TED. Follow the school at Twitter/21school.

The school’s aim is to tackle the toughest challenges of the 21st century, and provide input and resources for the Oxford university community on these issues (see the list below). They aim to formulate new concepts, policies and technologies that will make the future a better place to be. Very nice!

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