Wave the Flag…Today!

Tonight Bafana Bafana take to the field. New game, new era, new Coach, new goals to achieve…and hopefully score. In a way this represents a rebirth of sorts following all that was experienced and accomplished during the World Cup.

The challenge is for all South Africans is to get behind our team, to continue waving the flag. This is an opportunity to build on what was achieved during those remarkable days during the Finals. It shouldn’t be merely some emotional hype, it has to go deeper than that in order to be sustainable. And of course sustainability is the challenge facing South Africa. Staying connected and deepening relationships at both a personal and macro level will be what is needed. Companies that did amazingly creative stuff with their staff during the Finals need to ask themselves ‘what next?’. How can they sustain the goodwill and momentum that they were able to generate?

It has to go beyond the hype! Wave that flag but think about what needs to happen next. After all, thinking is the place were all intelligent action starts!

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The most important development opportunity of the next two decades

One of my personal passions is trying to work out how to help developing countries, especially in my home continent of Africa, can help their people out of debilitating poverty. I believe it is possible. It is certainly desirable at all sorts of levels.

One of the possibilities that presents a huge opportunity to help developing countries take a quantum leap forward in wealth development is the fact that the majority of their commodity and resource wealth is most likely yet to be discovered. Put another way: “There’s gold in them hills”.

Here’s a pop quiz to prove my point. Imagine an average square mile of the earth’s surface. How much sub surface value is there in the earth below it? I’m talking about the sub soil resources, minerals, etc that can be extracted and commodotised. In the typical OECD country (and OECD countries account for a quarter of the earth’s surface), each square mile has about $ 300,000 of sub soil assets below it.

In Africa, what do you think that number is? Is it less or more?

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BP might fix their well, but big industry is still broken

As I write this, BP have capped their gushing oil well in the Gulf of Mexico (although they still need to complete tests on the cap – read the news here). At last! But the crisis is, of course, nowhere near over. A longer term fix for the well is needed, and the cleanup of the Gulf will take years. So, as we enjoy this moment, it’s important to realise that we need to change the way our big industrial companies are run. We live in a fragile world at huge threat from the choices we have made and the industries we require to fuel our lifestyles.

This conversation is not made any easier by the fact that BP have bungled the handling of this issue from the start. From Tony Hayward’s ridiculous attempts to put solar panels on his house to their denial of access to dirty beaches making the “land of the free” more draconian than communist Russia used to be. President Obama has also mishandled this with his “kick ass” approach to “British Petroleum”. But at least they’ve been in the news, and had huge pressure placed on all parties to find a solution. And at least BP has admitted the mess and promised a pot of money to clean it up.

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Cheaper desalination – water for the world

I wrote recently about potential water wars. One reader got into conversation with me, and questioned my assertion that desalination was expensive and therefore not yet a viable solution to the world’s water scarcity problem. Well, I did a bit of digging and found an article in The Economist that not only provides some details, but also suggests that some scientists have come up with a potential solution.

So, the bad news is that I was right, and we have real water issues. The good news is that there are solutions being developed. You can read the article in The Economist here, or an extract below.

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America’s (ongoing) dependence on (foreign) oil

The BP oil spill provides an opportunity for America to turn inward and think about it’s dependence on oil to make its economy work. Environmentalists have been saying for years that this is a cause of great harm to the planet, and now that such a harm befalls America’s shores maybe it’s time to have the conversation about alternatives. I don’t know what else it will take, since this is something America has been promising itself for decades.

Here are two great videos that highlight the promises of every American president since Nixon (yes, way back in the 1970s, and EVERY President since) to reduce dependence on (foreign) oil. Most have also promised to reduce dependence on all oil, regardless of source (i.e. it’s not just an oil supply issue, it should be an oil usage issue, too). So far, President Obama has simply used bluster to kick BP’s “ass”, rather than turn the conversation to where it should be. But maybe it’s too early for that. Hopefully a blackened southern coastline will help Americans have the right conversation.

Here then the two videos (you may live in a country where the Daily Show video is unavailable):
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BP’s record – not just an oil spill – and a lesson for us all

In March 2007, a blog entry I wrote received quite a lot of attention in the South African press. In it, I suggested that certain industries had the potential to get themselves into a lot of trouble if they chased the goal of improved efficiency to its logical conclusion. The Economist (“Browne Out“, 18 Jan 2007) had pointed out that oil companies have so stripped out costs and employees, that all their engineers work on the ragged edge of their abilities and capabilities. I wrote:

If (and when!) they have problems, oil companies are unlikely to have the capacity to respond quickly and effectively in emergency situations. Ruthlessly cutting costs eventually strips out the ability of a company to do what it has to do. It stretches staff, and demoralises them as well, often beyond their ability to cope with situations that arise. In oil companies, as in other industries, this can have catastrophic results, in the glare of public scrutiny.

Obviously, a lot of media attention is currently focused on BP and its catastrophic oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Greenpeace is going to town with a campaign to “rebrand” BP (see it here). But, behind the obvious story is another even more damaging one.

US Occupational Safety and Health Administration records show that in the last 3 years, BP has had 760 “egregious and willful safety violations” (download PDF report here). To put this into some industry perspective, during that same period Sunoco and ConocoPhillips both had 8, Citgo had 2, and Exxon had but 1. Yes, that’s the same Exxon that used to hold the record for the worst US oil disaster! One violation for them, and 760 for BP. That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, doesn’t it?

I can’t comment on that, nor on the response (or lack thereof) by the OSHA. I can say that it currently looks as if BP are going to take responsibility and sort things out. But that will run up against the point I was making three years ago – what capacity do they have now that they’re in crisis?

There is obviously a case for efficiency. But there is also an immensely big case to be made for carrying some excess capacity in your company. It allows you to give employees some time to think. It means you can slow things down just a touch, and do them properly. It provides space for creativity and innovation. It enhances work-life balance, and therefore quality of life for employees. So, possibly the profit won’t be quite as good as it might have been. But the long term sustainability of your company is much more secure.

I hate to be proven right with my predictions of the worst. But, in this case, BP, “I told you so”. Hopefully the rest of us can learn some lessons here too.

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China starts to wake up to sustainability (be afraid, very afraid)

About a year ago, I wrote a blog about China and environmental sustainability. It was something Thomas Friedman had written about how he thought America would be able to benefit from the future need to clean up China’s pollution. I think he (and I) failed to understand both the Chinese mindset and the power of a government based on centralised power.

China is starting to wake up to sustainability. And now they can move extremely quicky. Unemcumbered by lobby groups (think of big oil and the US government for an example of what can happen when lobbyists get involved in democratic processes), the Chinese government is able to quickly impose legislation and rewards. And it looks as if they’re starting to do this.

In many cities now, businesses are required to comply with a fifteen point sustainability checklist. If they do not, they are refused access to capital and bank loans, and have been threatened with increased taxation. At a personal level, and example of this happened just last week, when five major cities launched subsidies for those people who buy hybrid or electric cars. The subsidies are significant and will definitely influence consumer behaviour significantly (read about this at Reuters or the NY Times – this article typically sees it as a stealth subsidy to undermine American car manufacturers, rather than a green subsidy, but it still provides interesting data on the project).

The sleeping giant is waking up. This could change everything, and be just the boost that the green economy desperately needs. For those people who have been saying “Until China does something about pollution and energy use, it doesn’t matter what we do in the West”, I have a simple message: “China just did something”. So, what’s your excuse now?

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Synthetic Life created – this changes everything

I have been predicting it for some time, and today it was announced! J. Craig Venter runs the company that first sequenced the human genome. Now, his team has created what they’re calling synthetic life.

They’ve actually created an entirely synthetic genome, built from chemicals in a lab. They inserted the genome into a cleaned out cell. When they did so, the new genome fired up exactly as if it were a “natural” genome.

Read the press release here.

Of course, everything has gone crazy. The media are in a frenzy. Some claim he’s playing God. Others are freaking out that these things will “escape” into nature and destroy life. And some are saying that it will end disease and bring about paradise on earth. The truth, as always, will lie somewhere in between these extreme views.

But this changes everything. Mark this day. A new era has dawned.

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PodCast Update – Nine Business reasons to go Green

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Kopernik: Connecting ideas with users and investors

From the latest Springwise newsletter (make sure you sign up – it’s brilliant):

Tech store brings innovation to developing nations

One of the most challenging aspects of humanitarian aid is connecting those who generate innovative solutions with those who need them. That’s where Kopernik comes in: a grassroots platform designed to help bring breakthrough technologies to developing nations.

The process is straightforward and transparent: Kopernik showcases exciting tech products by inventors and technology providers, like an online store. Next, vetted organizations in developing countries submit short proposals explaining how they’d use those products. Finally, ‘the crowds’ browse proposals and donate funds to those they’d most like to see realized. Once enough money has been raised, Kopernik transfers the funds to the technology provider, who then ships directly to the receiving organization. Completing the loop, the receivers report on how the products are being used and provide feedback on the technology’s effectiveness. Updates are posted on Kopernik’s website, so that contributors can track the effect of their donations. Kopernik charges for-profit technology providers a fee of 5% of sales made through the site, and also takes a 5% cut of donations.

Launched in February, New York-based Kopernik has already formed partnerships with over a dozen tech organizations, and more than 200 non-profits have applied to be part of Kopernik’s network. So far, it has facilitated the distribution of several products including the Life Straw, a low-cost water filtration device, and Firefly, a solar-powered LED lantern.

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Surfing the silver tsunami or crash and burn!

One of the biggest and yet least talked about shifts is the challenges and opportunities that an ageing population presents to business and society. Few political or business leaders are facing up to this Tsuami that is beginning to break on the shoreline. It’s time for action because the impact is closer than most people imagine. Here are a few headline facts:

- Between 1950 and 2000, the percentage of the world population older than 60 rose from 8 percent to 10 percent – By 2050, however, that percentage will more than double, to 21 percent.
- In Japan and most western Europe countries — the share of population age 60-plus will be more than 40 percent by mid-century
- By 2030 in Japan and Germany people over 65 will account for more than a third of the population
- That equates to a loss of 10 million workers in Germany alone.
- In the UK today 100 workers support 27 pensioners… by 2020 this figure will rise to 48 pensioners for every 100 workers
- Europe and even China are facing similar trends…Who will finance the pension bill?
- These population changes will cause great social upheaval…
- Nothing like this has happened since the dying centuries of the Roman empire
- The bill for an aging population will be ten times more than the current financial crisis.

The reality of these demographic shifts are going to hit businesses and governments like a tsunami. But this demographic dilemma gets less attention than they deserve — largely because they take place over time spans much longer than the political and business cycles that drive most legislative and managerial agenda work against. Politicians also know that old people vote where as young people tend not to, so the harsh trade-off between investing in the future of young people against caring for the old is not going to be a topic dealt with in the 2010 UK election, which is a shame because it’s a topic worth discussing.

These massive change in markets and economies, and will require entirely new approaches on the part of both policymakers and business leaders. Huge challenges exist but there are also numerous opportunities for countries and businesses that face up to this tsunami now.

Read what four experts at the recent World Economic Forum have to say about the demographic shift that will reshape societies, economies, and markets over the next century.

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Why Haiti’s tragedy is Africa’s tragedy too

I am a columnist for BizCommunity, and write for them about once a month. My latest contribution reflects on international aid, and why Haiti’s tragedy is a problem for Africa. Haiti has done a remarkable job of ensuring that it keeps in the media’s eye, largely by making it easy for celebrities to travel there and by engaging with social media very effectively. I don’t begrudge them this at all. Well done, them.

But the problem is that there is a limited pool of money that gets channeled to international aid, and when millions of this gets diverted to one tragedy, someone somewhere else is losing out – especially in the current economic climate.

Africa, more often than not is the loser in this scenario. And yet Africa’s daily tragedy is every bit as horrifying as the pictures that emerged after Haiti’s earthquake.

Read more at the BizCommunity blog. And then, please, do something to respond! My suggestion is to sign up to the excellent resources made available by The Global Poverty Project.

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New gas markets are opening up

One of the major issues we are all facing is the looming energy crisis. Dwindling oil supplies, pollution from dirty energy sources (such as oil and coal) and growing fears around global warming are all combining to create a fairly bleak future. The solutions are systemic and must be multi-faceted, including reducing the amount of energy we consume and finding cleaner – and alternative – energy sources.

Of the current energy sources, gas is always cited as one of the best options. It is (relatively) cleaner and cheaper. But, because Russia controls a massive amount of Europe’s gas reserves, it has also been a very political commodity. And, it has been assumed that there was not a lot of gas around. But now, new drilling techniques, new technology and new gas field finds are changing the energy landscape. The USA is now probably the world’s producer, and has enough gas to potentially be self-sufficient for 100 years. That is a mind blowing thought! It will change everything if it’s true – cleaner energy, abundantly available in the USA will change politics, energy, environmentalism and the global balance of power. It will certainly remove a big incentive for American military intervention around the world.

I was therefore fascinated by a report in last week’s Economist that detailed just such a scenario. You can read “An unconventional glut” at The Economist website.

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Lessons from Kraft shutting a Cadbury factory

Today, Kraft executives came before the British Parliament to answer queries about the closure of a Cadbury’s factory near Bristol with the loss of 400 jobs. The reporting on this by the news media is sloppy and sensation-seeking. Kraft is positioned as the “evil empire”, too arrogant to even send its CEO to the hearings.

Yes, Kraft “promised” before the Cadbury’s takeover that they would not close any factories. And, yes, it is tragic that another few hundred people will be out of work by the end of next year. But, there is no surprise here, and Kraft should not be seen as the (only) villian.

Firstly, Cadbury had already announced the closure of the factory in 2007, planning to move production to Poland. Secondly, over the past two years, Cadbury has reduced their staff count by 7,000 people (that’s halving their workforce – according to the FT). Kraft it could be argued has, in fact, stemmed the flow of retrenchments from Cadbury. Why is there no mention of this today?

Notwithstanding the talk from headline seeking journalists or nationalistic Brits who can’t stand to see American firms take over “British” companies, there is actually no surprise over the way workers are being treated by Kraft/Cadbury. Until we fundamentally change our mindsets, the relentless pursuit of profit at any price will inevitably lead to workers being treated badly, and losing their jobs.

It’s no use moaning about this unless you’re prepared for the consequences of the alternative. As we approach Easter, would you be prepared to pay more for your chocolates knowing that you were securing 400 jobs at a factory near Wales? Would you pay a premium for Cadbury chocolates? Seriously, would you? It’s easy, for example, to moan about how the greedy bankers led us into a recession with their easy credit. But if you have an interest-only mortgage, or have a “portfolio” of properties that you have financed on cheap credit with the dream of filling them with tenants and selling them when their values escalated, you are as much part of the problem as any banker was. Ditto if you drive a car you can’t really afford, but were able to finance on cheap credit.

Until we, the world’s consumers, tell companies to change their behaviour, their only rational approach is to continue to cut costs. And we send that message by what we buy. If you join in with the general indignation at Kraft in Britain today, then take a few minutes to ask yourself what you will do to make your feelings known. Otherwise, it’s all just bluster.

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New climate change research verifies human causes

Since the so-called “Climate-gate scandal” that erupted just before the Copenhagen conference last year, journalists and those denying human causes for climate change have felt quite good about themselves – as if the “Climate-gate scandal” had vindicated their position. If you don’t believe that there is a link between human activity and climate change, then before you read further, just ask yourself this: “what was the essence of the climate-gate scandal?” I have found that most people don’t know. (The answer, by the way, has very little to do with actual data on climate change).

But the issue underlying “Climate-gate” happened in 2007. Science hasn’t stopped since then. Now a new series of studies has been released, showing even more evidence of the role of human activity in global warming and climate change. The New Scientist has just released a nice list of these bits of research. You can see them here, or an extract below.

Climate change deniers are going to wake up one day and be very embarrassed. They’re like those who denied links between cancer and cigarette smoking. And they’re similraly being well manipulated by big corporate money (why did the Climate-gate scandal only come out weeks before the Copenhagen conference?).

The evidence continues to mount… We must change the way we live on this planet.

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Tesco launches world’s first zero-carbon emission store

Tesco sometimes takes a few knocks in the press. Most recently for not allowing people wearing pyjamas into their stores and another for asking a father, for safety reasons, to leave a store because he was balancing his six-year old child on his shoulder. Frankly I don’t want to shop were people are running around in their old flannel pyjamas (it’s never going to be sexy French lace nighties) so I for one applaud this decision and as for the dad with his kid on his shoulders, sure it’s petty but we have a government obsessed with health and safety rules and a big brother mentality. So no need to shoot the messenger in this case the Tesco security guard.

Over the past 18 months I’ve become a fan of Tesco. As a company they have achieved incredible results in a very competitive industry. Tesco have streaked ahead of their competitors over the past 20 years because they understand what their customers want and shrewd management and marketing have kept them ahead of the competition. At the end of last year I had the privilege of being invited to do my Mind the Gap keynote presentation on generational marketing at the Tesco Marketing away day and I got further insight into Tesco, you can read about these insights here.

This week Tesco launched the world’s first “zero-carbon” emission store as part of its bid to be a carbon neutral company by 2050. The shop, in Ramsey, Cambridgeshire, is timber-framed rather than steel, and uses skylights and sun pipes to cut lighting costs. It also has a combined heat and power plant powered by renewable bio-fuels, exporting extra electricity back to the national grid. In addition the refrigerators – one of the biggest blackspots for food retailers trumpeting their green credentials – have doors to save energy and harmful HFC refrigerant gases have been replaced. The new store, cost 30% more to build, but it uses 50% less energy, and with oil costs on the increase the business case sells itself.

To coincide with the Ramsey opening, the supermarket chain said it intended to spend more than £100m with green technology companies, although Leahy was unsure of the level of supermarket’s current spend on this.

Tesco has been at the forefront of the grocers’ race to be green. The UK’s biggest supermarket has provided £25m of funding for the University of Manchester to set up a sustainable consumption institute, and has a 10-point community plan, with pledges to increase local sourcing and to consult local communities in an attempt to be viewed as a good neighbour.

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Get used to the cold and blame global warming

This is just a short comment on something I can’t believe I keep hearing in the media. Well, to be honest, I only hear it from those that hold ludicrous beliefs to start with. But I have heard a few times in the last week that “so much for global warming”, or “they said global warming was a problem, hah!”.

The cause of these comments is the longest and coldest period in many decades in the UK. With temperatures in Scotland reaching a frigid -23 Celcius, and London having highs below zero for the last few days, and snow and sleet forecast for next few days, this is a real issue for the UK. It’s cold, and the government is not coping with it. They don’t have enough stock of salt and grit to clear the streets, for example.

Everyone needs to get used to colder winters. They will get more frequent. That’s what “global warming” does. It makes summers hotter and winters colder. “Global warming” does not refer to how it feels to us all year round. It refers to average temperatures over land and sea. “Climate change” is a better phrase to use to describe the problems we will actually experience. Cold winters. Hot summers.

This is not your parent’s future… This is something new. And it’s something we need to deal with. That’s what COP15 was supposed to be about. I hope the winter chills remind the politicians that we need a real, workable, lasting solution. Quickly.

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2010 will be an important – but bad – year for green business

Cop15, the global conference in Copenhagen last year, produced about as much as anyone could have expected (a lot less than was hoped) – a fudged solution that requires much further discussion and negotiation. And in the UK, the CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme (the renamed Carbon Reduction Commitment) initial deadline for creating baselines was pushed out a year to April 2011. It’s unlikely the USA will be able to get to a final cap and trade agreement into legislation during 2010 (the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 must still pass through the Senate). While China made positive noises before Cop15, it seems that they were really sticky in Copenhagen and were a big reason that the final agreement did not include any operational terms.

With all of these issues in mind, it seems clear that 2010 is likely to be a year of talks and discussions, but very little action. For companies involved in green industries this will be frustrating. Many of these companies are startups, gearing up for the expected demand in sustainability issues (technology, consulting, business processes, engineering, energy, and much more). But many of them won’t survive another year of waiting and delays in implementation and client demand. It seems likely they will have to.

Companies that are keen on implementing green strategies (for whatever reason) have probably started to do this already. Companies looking for an excuse to delay implementation, however, will have plenty of excuses in 2010. They’re likely to keep delaying. They’ll do so until they’re forced to change (and that’s the main reason I support emissions trading legislation!).

So, 2010 will not be a good year for those involved in the sustainability industry. But it is an important year nevertheless. It’s important to continue lobbying. It’s important to continue to search for the best solutions and the best processes that will not only produce the best outcomes, but will also be compelling for those who are not yet convinced that anything needs to be done. It’s an important year for science – more must be done to show the scientific evidence of climate change and the need for changes in our lifestyles. And it’s an important year for venture capitalists, who must try to separate out those startups that truly have something to offer from those that are just taking a chance on the bandwagon (remember the shakeup in the online IT industry just 10 years ago?).

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Who owns the moon?

This is not a frivolous question. China is making great strides towards a presence in space – as is India. Russia, the UK, the EU and the USA are already there. And it’s not all about national pride and the “because it’s there” motivation. It is highly likely that there are some very useful and very valuable minerals on the moon. And right now, it could very well be a “first come, first served” scenario for their usage. Oh, and let’s not forget that Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic is also in the mix and should soon have the ability to launch and relaunch space vehicles at will. So, this will soon be a government and private interest issue.

Can you own property on the moon? This question may have to be answered sooner than you think.

Earlier in 2009, a NASA probe crashed into the moon’s surface and discovered frozen water – they claim lots of it. This makes establishing a base on the moon a lot more feasible. There are lots of reasons someone might want a moon base. There would be military benefits and scientific ones, too. But most important, there would be commercial ones too. There are some amazing mining opportunities on the moon, including huge quantities of helium 3 which could be used to generate clean energy on earth.

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TIDES of Change: the five trends disrupting business in the next 5 years

Updated in May 2010

Download a copy of this article in PDF format – right click here. The contents of this article can be presented as a keynote or a workshop for your team. Contact our UK or South African offices to find out how.

As the world slowly emerges out of recession over the next few years, it will become increasingly clear that this was more than just an economic downturn. Disruptive forces are significantly reshaping the world of work. Some of these changes have been brewing for a decade or more – and now this recession has exacerbated their influence and speeded up their effects. Companies that have survived the downturn need to shift their focus to surviving the upturn. We are not ever going to “get back to normal” – a new normal is emerging for everyone, everywhere.

The most successful companies will be those that find ways to be strategically responsive. To do this, it is important that everyone – at every level of the organisation – has an understanding of the forces that will be shaping the next decade. Some key trends that were already vaguely evident a few years ago have now been catalysed by the downturn, and will fundamentally change the way we work, the rules of the game and the methods by which companies will gain and retain competitive advantage in their industries. When your people understand this, they can contribute meaningfully to your company’s success. You can develop these insights through regular analysis of your environment and strategic conversations throughout your organisation with all of your people. Their understanding will help them buy into your vision and strategies. And it is also essential for problem solving, creativity, innovation and the proactive identification of opportunities and threats in your industry and marketplace.

There are at least five key drivers of disruptive change that every organisation in every industry and sector needs to track. These are the T.I.D.E.S. of change. (It’s a corny acronym, I know, but hopefully it will help with both remembering the framework, as well as making it easy to use on a regular basis in team meetings and informal conversations throughout your organisation). Here then are the key drivers of disruptive change in the next decade, and some questions to ask yourself and your teams as you plan to respond to them:

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