Why unemployment will rise as the economy recovers in 2010

This is a simple insight, but might help a few people as they think ahead to 2010. At this time of year it is fashionable to make all sorts of predictions for the year ahead – since I am a futurist and make my money by helping people to make sense of the new world of work, I’d better put my money where my mouth is.

I believe that 2010 will see a slow, but consistent economic recovery throughout the world. I would hope that the new UK government would have the guts to cleanse the banking industry, by demanding a full audit and accounting of their liabilities. But I doubt this will happen. Nevertheless it appears that the last of great banking surprises has now come and gone, and that we can start to rebuild. Growth will probably start first in technology, medical and green industries, with a slow growth in construction. But construction has a problem coming as government money that has been brought forward from future years runs out. And that will probably be the biggest factor that inhibits growth and keeps it slow and steady.

One indicator, however, will put some people off and confuse many pundits. Unemployment is likely to rise and keep rising in 2010. Many will take this as a sign that the recovery is not happening. But they would be wrong. This is a simple lesson in knowing what a trend actually tells you.

In most countries, the unemployment figure is actually the number of people who have signed up for unemployment benefits or assistance. In many countries, it is actually the number of people who are actively seeking work. In the midst of a deep recession, as we have experienced over the past year, many people who are actually unemployed don’t bother to register themselves as job seekers. They reason that there’s no point. But as news of a recovery begins to seep through the media, their hopes begin to rise and they sign up as job seekers, hoping to find work.

And that’s why official unemployment figures will probably rise as the economy begins to recover.

It’s not going to be easy to be a strategist next year. 2010 is going to be a wild year. And my guess is that fortune will favour the brave… and the well informed.

Who owns the moon?

This is not a frivolous question. China is making great strides towards a presence in space – as is India. Russia, the UK, the EU and the USA are already there. And it’s not all about national pride and the “because it’s there” motivation. It is highly likely that there are some very useful and very valuable minerals on the moon. And right now, it could very well be a “first come, first served” scenario for their usage. Oh, and let’s not forget that Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic is also in the mix and should soon have the ability to launch and relaunch space vehicles at will. So, this will soon be a government and private interest issue.

Can you own property on the moon? This question may have to be answered sooner than you think.

Earlier in 2009, a NASA probe crashed into the moon’s surface and discovered frozen water – they claim lots of it. This makes establishing a base on the moon a lot more feasible. There are lots of reasons someone might want a moon base. There would be military benefits and scientific ones, too. But most important, there would be commercial ones too. There are some amazing mining opportunities on the moon, including huge quantities of helium 3 which could be used to generate clean energy on earth.

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Capturing the Asian Opportunity

S+B (Strategy + Business) is a great ezine from Booz & Co. This week’s edition focuses on where multinational companies might want to focus as the recession draws to an end and an upturn begins. And the place to look is probably Asia – if you have a clear focus. Read their article at their website, or an extract below.

Capturing the Asian Opportunity
Economic recovery in China, India, and elsewhere in the region could be the strongest source of sustained global growth for years to come.
by Andrew Cainey, Suvojoy Sengupta, and Steven Veldhoen

In September 2008, the global financial crisis hit Asia like a tidal wave, flooding in from the U.S. and Europe. Within weeks, Asian GDP growth rates began to tumble: China’s annual growth rate dropped from 13 percent in 2007 to about 9 percent in 2008, India’s slipped from 9 percent to below 6 percent, and Singapore’s plunged from 8 percent to less than 4 percent. Underlying these stark statistics were significant declines in exports. In March 2008, China and India had boasted year-over-year export growth rates of more than 30 percent; nine months later, both were well into negative territory. Foreign direct investment in these countries, and in Korea, Japan, and the nations of Southeast Asia, fell significantly as well.

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In a Web 2.0 world, business has it’s head buried firmly in the sand

I’m curious. Curious about business’ lack of engagement with Twitter  / FaceBook / Tumblr / Google and everything else Web 2.0. I would have thought that any communication channel getting the sort of traction, focus, attention and subscription that these channels are getting, would have business engaging like a love struck teenager who’d just discovered their perfect partner?

But it’s not so. So not so. So far, the majority of my experience and observation is that business has been an extremely poor performer in these spaces. Take a look at these points from Jeffbulla’s Blog:

1. 73 percent of Fortune 100 companies registered a total of 540 Twitter accounts.
2. About three-quarters (76 percent) of those accounts did not post tweets very often.
3. More than half (52 percent) were not actively engaged (This was measured by engagement metrics such as numbers of links, hashtags, references and retweets.)

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A lesson in personalisation – your very own font

One of the trends we’ve been tracking for some time at TomorrowToday is the growing desire for personalisation. This is more than mere customisation. It is about creating something completely unique and tailored specifically for a particular individual. Nike was one of the first to make the news with their offering of customised shoes – you bought the shoes online and then selected a customised tagline to emboss onto the shoes. (They had some fun with people selecting offensive slogans, and had to have a level of censorship that ultimately backfired on them. But the idea was the right one).

I keep my eyes open for examples of customisation – big and small. Here’s a small one, but for someone who spends a significant time in front of a computer screen, it certainly grabbed my attention. Fontcapture.com will allow you to create your very own custom font face. It’s free and will take you about ten minutes to do. Download the font form, write your font face on their template, scan it, upload and wait a minute or so for the font file to be sent to you. Simple. Neat. Nice!

I don’t know how I’ll use this new font yet, but it’s nice to see my handwriting unfolding across my screen as I dictate this blog entry using voice recognition. One day, I’ll be replaced by this machine. I hope people notice if that happens….

(PS – for a more indepth look at the trend of personalisation, check out TrendHunter Pro’s report on it here).

Book Review – Free: The Future of a Radical Price

Chris Anderson is the editor of Wired, one of my favourite magazines. He has written two great books based on HBR articles. The first was “The Long Tail” – an awesome concept (Google it). Now, he has offered us another view of how the Internet is changing the world. It’s “Free”. A deputy editor at The Economist (my favourite magazine of all) has written a review. You can read it here, or below. Buy the book at Amazon.co.uk or Amazon.com or Kalahari – South Africa.

Chris Anderson is a guru of the information age. Under his editorship, Wired, the voice of the digital world, has won zillions of prizes. His speeches on the economics of the internet command vast sums. He’s a brilliant journalist; I know that, having worked with him before he was a big shot. But it is as an author that Anderson has gained most fame. He writes, broadly, about how digital technology has made the world a better place. His first book, The Long Tail, was hugely influential. In the bricks-and-mortar world, it said, in which the costs of marketing and distribution are high, companies make money by selling vast quantities of a few blockbuster items. In the digital world, in which the costs of marketing and distribution are low, companies can make money by selling small numbers of lots of different items.

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S+B’s Best Business Books of 2009

Booz & Co’s Strategy + Business ezine is one of my favourites, and one I always make time to read. Last week’s edition looked at the best business books of 2009, selected by their top team, and helpfully categorised.

If you want to read their reasoning, and some excellent background comments, start here. All I am going to do is list the books (and make it easy for you to buy them – choose from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk or Kalahari.net – for South Africa):

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After Shock: the five trends disrupting business in the next 5 years

Updated in March 2010 (now with an added Executive summary in the PDF format)

Download a copy of this article in PDF format – right click here. The contents of this article can be presented as a keynote or a workshop for your team. Contact our UK or South African offices to find out how.

As the world slowly emerges out of recession over the next few years, it will become increasingly clear that this was more than just an economic downturn. Disruptive forces are significantly reshaping the world of work. Some of these changes have been brewing for a decade or more – and now this recession has exacerbated their influence and speeded up their effects. Companies that have survived the downturn need to shift their focus to surviving the upturn. We are not ever going to “get back to normal” – a new normal is emerging for everyone, everywhere.

Understanding the forces that are driving this disruptive change will give an organisation the insights needed to adjust their systems, structures and methods and gain a significant competitive advantage in the next 3 to 5 years. It will also set them up for longer term success in the next few decades. It is therefore essential to provide not just senior leaders, but all staff throughout your company, with a framework of thinking about this “new normal”. You want them to work together to take advantage of the opportunities that will emerge.

There are at least five key drivers of disruptive change that every organisation in every industry and sector needs to track. These are the T.I.D.E.S. of change. (It’s a corny acronym, I know, but hopefully it will help with both remembering the framework, as well as making it easy to use on a regular basis in team meetings and informal conversations throughout your organisation). Here then are the key drivers of disruptive change in the next decade, and some questions to ask yourself and your teams as you plan to respond to them:

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M-Pesa, Vodacom, Nedbank and Rob Shuter

Earlier this year Rob Shuter (head of Nedbank Retail) resigned from Nedbank and joined Vodacom as Financial Director. It was an exciting move from my perspective as I watch mobile phone companies (and technology in general) redefine how we do business. Not necessarily the companies, but users who adapt the technology to find innovative ways to run their businesses differently. The big question I was asking was what happens when someone with intimate retail banking knowledge and experience (especially of Shuter’s profile) gets a significant position at a mobile phone company? What happens after what comes next?

I’ve not seen anything obvious in the press, and have quite possibly missed it, but this week a couple of pieces of the puzzle dropped into place. Enter M-Pesa.

M-Pesa is an amazing Kenyan innovation, and describe themselves as:

M-PESA is a Safaricom service allowing you to transfer money using a mobile phone. Kenya is the first country in the world to use this service, which is offered in partnership between Safaricom and Vodafone. M-PESA is available to all Safaricom subscribers (Prepay and Postpay), even if you do not have a bank account. Registration is FREE and available at any M-PESA Agent countrywide. The M-PESA application is installed on your SIM card and works on all makes of handsets.

My sources suggest that M-Pesa has radically transformed the banking space in Kenya and left the banks flat-footed and out of the equation. Around 15 million people use M-Pesa to transfer money and make payments. Kenyan banks (collectively) have a third of this number as customers. M-Pesa has transformed banking access to the previously un-banked, who are found predominately in rural areas in Kenya. Areas that traditional banks have little to no access to.

The person I spoke to this week had some of the following to say about M-Pesa:

M-Pesa has made the sim card more valuable than a credit card.

M-Pesa is transforming how aid is distributed within Kenya.

M-Pesa has fundamentally re-defined the banking space.

Kenyan banks have not found an ‘anti-dote’ to M-Pesa’s presense, and possibly wont or can’t, simply because they’re unable to redefine themselves.

Maybe a little over-enthusiastic. But the hype and the numbers do confirm his thoughts.

Enter Shuter, Vodacom and Nedbank….

What if Vodacom’s next move is to bring M-Pesa to South Africa? Both Safaricom (M-Pesa’s master) and Vodacom are subsidiaries of Vodaphone. Certainly they have someone with huge retail banking experience in Shuter, and he has intimate knowledge and I imagine a solid relationship with Nedbank.

What if? Watch this space. This may be what happens after what comes next…..

The age of cheap oil

I’ve just watched a brilliant presentation by Rob Hopkins, founder of the Transition Movement on TED. He reminds us that the oil our world depends on is steadily running out, and proposes a unique solution to this problem — the Transition response, where we prepare ourselves for life without oil and sacrifice our luxuries to build systems and communities that are completely independent of fossil fuels. Rob makes some powerful points very eloquently and simply. Using a bottle of a litre of oil he highlights that this amazing porduct contains the energy equivalent of about five weeks of hard human manual labour; we can turn it into a dazzling array of materials – medicine, modern clothing and even laptops; we base the design of our settlements, business models and even economic growth on the basis that we will have oil in perpetuity. Yet when we look back over history at what may be called the petroleum interval, it is just a short slither in history in which we have discovered this extrodinary material and then based a whole way of life on around it. Rob suggests that we are now straddling the top of this energy mountain our degree of dependancy on oil now becomes our degree of vulnerability. For every four barrels of oil we consumer we only discover one new barrel. There are 98 oil producing countries in the world, but of that 65 have already past their peak in oil production.

The truth of the matter is that the age of cheap oil is over. in my latest presentation Brave New World I make the point that the world has changed and that there is now a new normal, and I show how over the coming years society is going to be transformed radically to the point that within ten to twenty years the society that we live in will be completely different and that businesses need to be preparing for this reality now. Of the two greatest factors influencing our world, an aging population and the end of cheap oil, are the two key factors that will force changes in the way we live and how we think about the world around us. If you would like to learn more about the Brave New World, and how you can prepare your business for it, please contact me for more information.

The James Martin 21st Century School – understanding the future

I am a huge fan of James Martin. Not the celebrity chef. Nor the inventor of the aircraft ejection seat. Nor any of the other famous James Martins. I am a huge fan of James Martin the futurist and author of one of the best books of all time, “The Meaning of the 21st Century” (see a previous post about the book here).

I recently discovered that a think tank “school” has been created at Oxford university, and named in his honour. It’s the James Martin 21st century school. It seems to be a fantastic institution. You can see an 8 minute video of the Dean of the school, ex-South African, Ian Goldin, speaking recently at TED. Follow the school at Twitter/21school.

The school’s aim is to tackle the toughest challenges of the 21st century, and provide input and resources for the Oxford university community on these issues (see the list below). They aim to formulate new concepts, policies and technologies that will make the future a better place to be. Very nice!

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Nike’s considered sustainability programme

Nike has some aggressive sustainability targets. Nike CEO Mark Parke believes that corporate responsibility is no longer a staff function at Nike. It’s a design function, a sourcing function, a consumer experience function, part of how we operate.

Lorrie Vogel is the general manager of Nike Considered, Nike’s in-house sustainability think tank says that the long-term vision for Considered is to design products that are fully closed loop: produced using the fewest possible materials, designed for easy disassembly while allowing them to be recycled into new product or safely returned to nature at the end of their life. By 2011, 100 percent of footwear will meet baseline Considered standards, apparel by 2015 and equipment by 2020 – creating better performing products while minimizing environmental impact by reducing waste, using environmentally preferred materials and eliminate toxins.

Wikipedia says that the “Nike Considered line utilizes materials found primarily within 200 miles (320 km) of the Nike factory which reduces the energy used for transportation, diminishing the resulting climate change impact. The manufacturing process reduces solvent use by more than 80% compared with Nike’s typical products. The leather comes from a tannery that recycles wastewater to ensure toxins are kept out of the environment, and it is colored using vegetable-based dyes. Hemp and polyester are used to make the shoe’s woven upper and shoelaces. The mid-sole is cut to lock into the outer sole, reducing the need for toxic adhesives. The shoe’s outer sole includes rubber made from recycled factory rubber waste. Considered is part of a larger effort Nike has been undertaking for several years to reduce waste, eliminate toxic substances, and otherwise lessen the environmental impact of the world’s largest athletic shoe manufacturer. The company has a publicly stated goal to “Minimize or eliminate all substances known to be harmful to the health of biological or ecological systems.”

You can read a recent interview with Lorrie on CleanTechnica’s blog and I’ve sourced an excellent MIT case study for you on how Nike is becoming more greendownload an MIT case study, alternatively contact me and I will send you the report

To degree or not to degree, that is the question!

We’ve been noticing a distinct shift in the perceived value that a university degree brings. It’s largely accepted that a degree from an university, especially an ivy league one such as MIT, Harvard or INSEAD can improve expected earnings significantly. This has resulted in a seemingly all out onslaught by young people to get degrees, to the point now where getting a university qualification does not provide the competitive advantage it offered ten years ago. With so many new graduates, instead of providing enhanced opportunities, degrees have now become minimum entrant criteria for jobs at large corporations. And don’t stop with one degree, today’s graduates feel greater pressure to further their qualification with MBA’s and PHD’s. 78% of students are concerned about getting good qualifications. To put this into perspective, that’s more pressure than they feel to have sex, fit in or taking drugs – combined!

The Telegraph has an interesting article on University: was it really worth the effort? and an interesting website called notgoingtouni is encouraging school leavers to pursue apprenticeships as a viable alternative. When one considers the success of people like Bill Gates and Richard Branson who never got degrees you do have to stop and reflect on whether or not university is the best route to ensuring a bright future especially when the Office for National Statistics revealed that 746,000 18- to 24-year-olds are unemployed – a record rate of 18 per cent. It is thought that about 100,000 of those are university-leavers who, despite their degrees, cannot find jobs.

You can read the whole article from The Telegraph below or click on the link.

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Is the bubble set to burst again in 2010?

A few weeks ago I commented on whether or not the recession would be a U or a W (see blog Is the economy in for a V, a U or a W? HSBC Chief thinks it’s a W) Our research definitely suggests that we have entered a new season and that the next few years are going to be characterised by increased volatility. Further evidence is arising to support the notion that those businesses who think things are going back to “normal” are in for a shock. Larry Elliott and Heather Stewart from The Observer write that central banks are relaxed about booming asset markets. But with repossessions rising and jobs still scarce, some fear we’re heading straight for another bust.

You can read the article here or follow the link to The Observer

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The future for banks and a better way to pay bankers

POSTED 10 November 2009; UPDATED 11 November 2009

One story is going to run for the next 3-5 years at least: how to fix the banking system. The big media headline grabbing story is how to regulate bankers’ pay. It appears as if bankers don’t know how much their image has been tarnished, or how important trust is in their business – at least if their announcements of monumental bonuses to be paid out at the end of 2009 is anything to go by. The spoof magazine cover in this picture is just one example of how bankers are now less trusted than estate agents! (OK, that’s unfair on agents).

Whether or not they actually go ahead with this is irrelevant – the fact that they might have is enough. Change must come to banking and financial sector. It will come in the form of greater regulations in the background (linked to Basel II and other related legislation that will be coming). But in the glaring public eye, bankers’ remuneration is a key issue that will need addressing.

The CEO of Booz & Company wrote a great piece for their latest S+B ezine. Read it online here, or an extract below. Then, they followed that up with a further article about how banks need to change – read it here or an extract below.

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1989 – a year that changed everything (everywhere)

Today is the twentieth anniversary of the Berlin Wall coming down.

In just a few weeks, we’ll also celebrate twenty years since the Velvet Revolution (Prague, 17 November), the execution of Nicolae Ceau?escu (Bucharest, 25 December), and the release of Nelson Mandela (Cape Town, 11 February, 1990). So far this year, we’ve seen twenty annivesaries for Tiananmen Square (Beijing, 5 June), Ayatollah Khomenei’s chaotic funeral (Tehran, 6 June) and the Baltic Way (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania; 23 August) – all political revolutionary moments that changed their countries.

Add to that, the culture-defining events of Lockerbie, Hillsborough, the invention of the HTTP that forms the foundation of the Internet, the fatwa against Salman Rushdie, and the debut of The Simpsons, and you have quite a year! That was 1989 (and a few months on either side of it, for Lockerbie and Mandela).

In my studies of generational theory, it’s common to come across a variety of definitions of who fits into which generation. Different authors, desperate to prove their research credentials, define the start of “Generation Y” as anything from 1978 to 1996. Most go with 1984 – defined such because children born in 1984 or later graduated high school in the new millennium (hence the other name for this generation: “Millennial kids”). Yet, to me, 1989 is a much better cusp year.

The worlds before and after 1989 were very clearly different. That is why 1989 holds such an important place in my mind – it marks a real change in human history. It will be remembered forever. If you want to reminisce with me, you might like the following links:

• A detailed introduction to generational theory
• New Statesman magazine – 1989: The Year of the Crowd special edition
• Lead article from New Statesman 1989 special edition
• TIME magazine 1989 special edition
• A list of TIME magazine special edition articles – easier to access index
• Remembering 1989, The Times, UK

The Twitter interview

I was recently interviewed by a journalist on the issue of Twitter and social media, and how it might impact traditional media. It was a fairly focused interview – not broad ranging – but you might be interested in some of the thoughts that emerged.

Q1. How has Twitter changed the landscape of social networking?

A1. No, I don’t think so. Twitter is to online communication what text messages (SMSs) did to email. Because you’re only allowed 140 characters, you’re forced to be short, sharp and to the point (or, in many people’s cases: vague, confusing and silly). I think Twitter has added to an already growing trend towards social networking.

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A Sandpit to Entice

Just been part of a conversation that happens all too infrequently. You know, one of those conversations that leave you buzzing, unable to sleep or concentrate on the ‘next thing to be done’. A conversation that ‘gets the juices going’ – a conversation in which you suspect the seeds of greatness sit; A conversation in which you see and sense the future. Around the table sat a person with years of experience of managing the Comrades Marathon, an Everest of event management if ever there was one. The other place at the table was taken by one of the most respected Educators in South Africa, a man who has presided over some of the best that SA schools have to offer. The subject? The need to rethink…to seriously rethink, how we go about leadership education.

The current models of leadership education are tired; they are not doing the job. There is lots of effort and endeavor but nothing much is changing. Imagination has given way to efficiency; conversation given way to curriculum; thinking given way to planning. Something is wrong but leadership education is big business and we all know that rethinking current ‘successful’ business models is not something we like to do.

This conversation will see other voices drawn into the mix. It will see a leadership ‘sandbox’ being build and just wait and watch what emerges from such a playground! The genie is out the lamp…it is going to be magic!

The World of Tomorrow (If The Internet Disappeared Today)

This is a great read (look) at what the world would look like if the internet disappeared today. A photo contest by the readers of Cracked.com. Some really fun stuff to think about how much the world has changed : )

While there’s a lot that’s funny, there is a reality check and reminder at how much has changed in our lives in such a short time. How much we take for granted because of the internet, and how much we wouldn’t have in our world if it never existed. Certainly we could do without some of it, but also how much we can do, how many people we’re in touch with, how many connections we have (meaningful and meaningless) because of the networked world we now live in.

It’s probably too large to think about, so for now, take a look and smile for a little while : )

And to be honest I don’t get the winner? If you could help me with that I’d be grateful…..

Vacation 2023 – I don’t want to go

I just read a fairly depressing forecast (from FastCompany) for the future of vacations. Specifically the year 2023. It’s based on the fuller article from ‘Forum for the Future‘ where they’ve developed four scenarios for 2023 in the tourism world (specifically the UK). A brief summary of the four from the FastCompany article:

In the “Boom and Burst” scenario, economies prosper, advances in air travel make vacations cheap and easy, and fuel efficiency has allowed the industry to stay on target with carbon emissions regulations. But there’s a catch–the massive increase in tourism leads to overcrowding in many destinations and the degradation of wilderness areas.

The more dire “Divided Disquiet” scenario imagines that a “toxic combination of devastating climate change impacts, violent wars over scarce resources and social unrest has created an unstable and fearful world. This has made traveling overseas an unattractive proposition,” so most people just stay home. In the “Price and Privilege” scenario, high oil prices make travel the exclusive domain of the rich, while the “Carbon Clampdown” scenario imagines that the government has regulated climate change and educated the public so thoroughly on the carbon price of travel that most people only want to take “ethical vacations” to volunteer or learn about other cultures.

The reality of vacationing in 2023 will probably be a combination of these scenarios, with high oil prices, disappearing wilderness, carbon quotas, and advances in air travel (i.e. biofuel-powered planes).

It does help give some perspective as to why wealthy people around the world are currently buying up coastal properties and game reserves. Simply because, in the future these investments will be worth massive amounts of money.

To download the full 2023 tourism report go here.

The Recession Generation

Each generation is defined by the economic experience of its youth. The generation now finishing university and entering a dire job market will be shaped by this experience forever. This generation is what we call the cusp between Generation X and Generation Y. This week’s Spectator magazine contains an excellent cover article that explains them wonderfully. Read it here, or a summary below:

The quiet agony of the recession generation
by Matthew Lynn
17 October 2009

Each generation is defined by the economic experience of its youth. And Britain is breeding angry, thrifty cynics who are beginning to wonder if they were mis-sold university education.

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This is not your father’s Mail strike

I am sitting in a hotel in Birmingham, watching the live press conference where the CWU is announcing that the planned UK postal strike will go ahead from tomorrow (Thursday, 22 October 2009). There is the typical bluster of Unions to Employers rhetoric, and I have little interest in the details of the strike.

The point I want to make here is that the parties involved – specifically the unions – have failed to understand that the world has changed. I was speaking to someone earlier this week who lived through the postal strikes in the early 1970s. He was at boarding school, and the postal strikes effectively cut them off from the world. There were very few private couriers then, and they were hugely expensive (he remembers the first class stamp cost 4p, and a courier would charge over 40p!). Postal strikes in the 1970s could cripple the country and devastate the economy.

Today, strikes will do little more give the economy a kick in the shins and a slight bruising. But, the ageing dinosaur that is Royal Mail has not been trusted for some time now.

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Space Tourism is 18 months away

Last Thursday, Sir Richard Branson updated shareholders in Virgin Group on “Virgin Galactic”, the company that has taken $200,000 deposits from over 200 people for seats on the first commercial near-orbit flight. However, his announcement indicated that the first flight would be reserved for his family (an a few friends and some journalists, too, no doubt), and that it is expected to happend within about 18 months.

In addition to these tourist flights, Virgin Galactic will also put satellites into space, train NASA crews and is investigating orbital hotels and tours of the moon. Anyone who says this won’t happen clearly has never heard of Richard Branson (or the Wright Brothers for that matter)! A few people alive today are old enough to remember when cars were considered a luxury for the truly rich and famous. How long will it be before the middle class can afford space tourism? Probably in my lifetime, I would have thought.

The “mother ship” that will launch the actual space flights: VMS Eve (see photo), named after Sir Richard’s mum, got its debut in Oshkosh, Wisc., this past July. And SpaceShipTwo, the suborbital plane for space tourism, will be unveiled on December 7, Branson says. He added: “What started off as a dream to send people just for the excitement of a voyage to look back and marvel at Earth has turned into a business.”

Entrepreneurial Edge – CNBC Africa

If you’re watching CNBC Africa this evening (15 October) at around 20:30, you can catch Entrepreneurial Edge (hosted by Chris Bishop), with at least one of it’s guests being me : )

The focus of the programme is future trends impacting entrepreneurs, and we chatted around education, skills development and Web 2.0. The two other guys in the interview were Dawie Olivier (CIO – Sasfin) and Devan Naiker (Dep CEO – Services SETA)

There was some nice stuff being thrown around in the short time we had. Thanks to Kate from SimonSays Communications for arranging and for being there to do my hair (really not necessary – I need a lot more than hair help)

CNBC Africa is on Channel 410 on DSTV.

Power of Mobile Money

In the early 1990’s I started work for one of South Africa’s largest banks. The most innovative project I worked on was the use of smart card/chip technology to enable people to purchase items using the smart chip inside their mobile phones. I thought it was the best idea out! Back then mobile phones were the size and the weight of a brick, but the advantages of the mobile chip technology in financial services seemed limitless. The project though never gained traction because the bank was concerned about handing over too much power to the mobile phone operators, and eroding profits.

So it was with great enjoyment that I read the Power of Mobile Money article in a recent Economist. This article illustrates the power behind markets and shows how even the poorest farmer in Africa can force bank managers to support one of the best financial innovations of recent years.

You can read the article below or follow this link to The Economist

The power of mobile money
Sep 24th 2009
From The Economist print edition

Mobile phones have transformed lives in the poor world. Mobile money could have just as big an impact

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Big news in Outer space and Cyber Space

Over the past two months there have been a number of huge developments in both outer space and cyberspace. Developments which could change the world we live in forever.

Outer space first…
On the 24th September it was officially announced that water was found on the moon. Chandrayaan-1, India’s first-ever moon probe, detected wavelengths of light reflected off the surface that indicated the chemical bond between hydrogen and oxygen — the telltale sign of either water or hydroxyl. In an attempt to further confirm these findings and establish how much water is present, on the 9th November NASA crashed the rocket and a satellite into a crater near the moon’s south pole. It will be awhile before all the data from the satellite can be analyzed to determine if there is water on the moon, but if confirmed then this will be equivalent to finding the holy grail of space exploration. Water on the moon would mean that colonisation of the moon would be possible within the next 10 – 20 years.

Cyberspace rockets ahead…

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Stop Tweeting about these…

Had to smile as this post from The Oatmeal this morning. It it Monday morning, and if anything it’s bound to give you a little smile. 10 Things you need to stop Tweeting about.

It’s a large and often question I’m hearing these days: what is Twitter all about? I’ve got it down to 3 categories of Tweets in order to explain it:

• The ‘I’m having a shower’ crew
• The ‘I’m at a conference/church meeting and this is what going on’ gang
• The ‘I’ve just read this great blog post, and you should too’ group

Or put another way:

• What I’M doing tweets
• What WE’RE doing tweets
• What YOU SHOULD be doing tweets

They all seem to have their own following based on the people I followers. There are some that cross over, but most people seem to stick to one particular genre.

Of course there are the ‘do business with me / look at my sexy profile online’ folk. But they’re despicable, in my opinion, and simply shouldn’t be allowed on Twitter. They do have a right to play with the rest of us, but it’s a pain in the butt to have to look at their tweets when I’m looking for something to feed my soul.

And yes, for some of you reading this, what and who I discover on Twitter does feed my soul : )

Is the economy in for a V, a U or a W? HSBC Chief thinks it’s a W

There is a lot of talk about recovery from the recession, greenshoots and even a new bull market. So I’ve been talking to a few heads of business about how business is going. There are a few outstanding results. A Pharma company that we work with is ahead of target for the second year and experiencing double digit growth. Even some of the specialist FS companies and banks that we work for are doing well. But I’m also finding an increasing number of businesses that are telling me that August and September have been their worst trading months ever. It’s almost as if a year on from the credit crisis, the wave that washed over the financial world has receded and many businesses and consumers are viewing the destruction around them and it’s not a pretty sight. During an interview with The Financial Times The Michael Geoghegan, head of Britain’s biggest bank warned we could soon be heading into a second recession and he fears the upturn will be short lived. He believes that the economy could follow a W-shaped trajectory, with the rebound going into reverse and growth retreating back into the red. Our research suggest that he is right, unfortunately we will not be going back to the normal before the credit crunch. There is now a new normal and bold, creative leadership is required.

Building your own healthcare community

Many years ago when I was in community development, some of the cutting edge thinkers were promoting the idea of less professionals and more community involvement in ensuring the growth, development, safety, etc of family. It was a simple but profound concept of building a care system less reliant on the ‘usual suspects’ (professionals) by involving people around a particular family who had an interest in them, who spent more time with them, and who, if integrated successfully could provide more useful and meaningful support.

There was a book I remember having to read while studying called ‘The other 23 hours’, that made the point in a residential child care environment. The book was written to encourage Child Care Workers, and to see the value and importance of their role. Social Workers in these setting often got all the glory and were seen to be the most important people in a child’s world. But as the book pointed out, a child may only see a Social Worker for 1 hour each day (and that’s a lot), there were another 23 hours in their day.

FastCompany has recently posted an article (The Future of Healthcare is social), and they’ve done a great job outlining similar thinking for healthcare, with technology as a large enabler. It makes sense in this arena as well. Our health is something that needs 24 hours of proactivity. We can’t afford or expect professionals to be available for all that time. But if we can assemble a community of people around us, who care about us, and who’ll get involved with us, and then enable it all with technology, we may find ourselves in a far healthier place than we currently are.

Even when we do our best to stay healthy, we still get sick. Coping with sickness in our already hectic lives can be challenging. In addition to looking out for her parents, Susan manages the health of her two kids, her husband, and herself, and she looks for ways to save time and money while still getting the care that they need. Recently, for example, Susan’s son woke up with a sore throat and a fever. She used an at-home strep test to rub a swab of her son’s throat culture onto a card. Within minutes, the test results confirmed her son had strep. Through an embedded RFID sensor within the card, the test results were wirelessly transmitted to her computer’s reader. On her computer, she was prompted to connect the incoming test results to her son’s personal health record. Next, she used her personal health network to book the earliest visit for her son within a 10-mile vicinity. Susan elected to electronically send her son’s strep results in advance of her appointment, allowing the receiving retail clinic to accelerate her visit by pre-issuing an e-prescription. Before leaving her computer, Susan selected her son’s classroom network, comprised of his teacher and the parents of other students, and sent out a message that her son had strep throat and would be home for the next several days.

It’s a longish read, but definitely worth it. If not just to see where health care might go, I’m fairly certain the thinking will at least change how you see other parts of your world.

Newspapers and Blogs. A great conversation

It’s not often I get sent a read like this one. And I follow a truck load of ‘reads’ everyday. Twitter, RSS, e-mail links, etc, etc. There is a lot of stuff that flows through my browser (is anyone else frustrated by Flash and Safari with the new Snow Leopard upgrade?).

The article I’m referring to (Let’s get sentimental; the readers deserve it) can be found on Marketingweb. It’s written by Gill Moodie:

Gill Moodie spent 14 years as a salaried hack in print media in South Africa and the UK before escaping to the blogosphere and freelance journalism. She is the publisher of Grubstreet in between unpacking and packing the infernal dishwasher and bringing up a four-year-old with attitude.

I suppose in all web 2.0 fairness I should take the time to credit Mel Stevens for sending it on, via e-mail (she’s barely a Tweeter or a FB’er). Thanks.

Back to the article. It’s an overview of the conversation between, primarily, Peter Bruce (Business Day editor) and Matthew Buckland (20FourLabs) and their good natured exploration of the future of newspapers in the midst of a web 2.0 onslaught. It brings in Barack Obama’s recent comments, along with a host of other great thoughts and comments from other great thinkers in this space.

Now, here’s why I love newspapers. Most of this excellent debate came from people schooled in the rigours of newsrooms. I, as a blogger for instance, may delight in thumbing my nose to traditional media but I can only do so because I was knocked into shape and learned how to be fair, accurate and (sometimes) thoughtful because I worked at newspapers, including at OMG’s (Peter Bruce).

I can’t do justice to her great article. Definitely worth going ‘there’ for a read. Certainly you’ll leave with at least one thought.