The Talent Exodus looms large

We’ve been talking almost since the recession began about a talent exodus. Our view has been that as soon as the economy begins recovering and companies start hiring again, there is going to be a tidal wave of staff movement. We’re calling it a talent exodus.

It should be obvious why this will happen. People have been overworked, and often abused, by their employers during the downturn. Imagine, for example, what it must be like to work for BP right now, when your boss has just announced his retirement at age 53 and a £ 600,000 a year pension for the rest of his life. You will be paying for that pension out of your salary, which has not increased in two years, nor will you get a bonus this year. Most other company examples are less extreme, but the same outcome exists – people are ready to look around at other options.

Secondly, when companies begin expanding and looking for new talent, they will not favour the currently unemployed. They will prefer to hire new staff from other companies, and they will not be constrained by industry boundaries either. So, your staff will be getting head hunter calls soon, and most will be willing to take the calls.

And now, a survey confirms our instinct. According to Deloitte LLP’s fourth annual Ethics & Workplace Survey, one-third of employed Americans plan to look for a new job when the economy gets better. Of this group of respondents, 48% cite a loss of trust in their employer and 46% say that a lack of transparent communication from their company’s leadership are their reasons for looking for new employment at the end of the recession.

It’s not too late to do something about this now! But you need to start now. This issue should be top priority and the head of every management agenda for the next year! If it’s not on your leader’s radar, your company is in big trouble.

   Send article as PDF to

Nine key workforce trends for the next decade

Download a copy of this article in PDF format – right click here. The contents of this article can be presented as a keynote or a workshop for your team. Contact our UK or South African offices to find out how.

My company, TomorrowToday, researches the new world of work, and focuses especially on helping our clients to understand the disruptive forces that will change the world in the next decade. We use a variety of constructs or frameworks to help people understand and respond to these issues. One of my favourites is our “TIDES of Change” framework (read an extended article on it here).

I was recently asked to simply list some of the key workforce trends of the next decade. It was an interesting exercise. So, without much explanation or detail (search this blog site for more details on each of these trends), here is a list of the most important issues we’ll be facing in the next few years in relation to our employees, leaders and teams. There are obviously some variations in different world regions, but these are fairly general trends for the next decade:

… Continue Reading

   Send article as PDF to

Markers of change in US Labor Statistics – 2010 is turning out to be quite historic

I think we might look back on 2010 as quite an important watershed year in the world of work. Since mid 2009, our team at TomorrowToday has been saying that the global financial downturn has been more than a financial crisis. We believe that as we emerge out of recession we’ll find that a number of key forces have been accelerated by the downturn – and these forces will change the shape of the world significantly. Five or more years from now we’ll look back on 2008 through 2011 and realise that it was a turning point in corporate history.

Those who understand this fact now, can begin to strategise for what the new world of work will look like in just a few year’s time, and can get the jump on their competitors. But that’s another thought for another day (look at the ‘strategy’ and ‘future trends’ categories of this website for what we’ve already written about these issues). In this post, I’d like to just point out some of the markers of radical change we’ve experienced this year so far, and add a few we’ve seen recently accelerate with the downturn (please also read the articles I link to – there’s some important information here):

… Continue Reading

   Send article as PDF to

BP might fix their well, but big industry is still broken

As I write this, BP have capped their gushing oil well in the Gulf of Mexico (although they still need to complete tests on the cap – read the news here). At last! But the crisis is, of course, nowhere near over. A longer term fix for the well is needed, and the cleanup of the Gulf will take years. So, as we enjoy this moment, it’s important to realise that we need to change the way our big industrial companies are run. We live in a fragile world at huge threat from the choices we have made and the industries we require to fuel our lifestyles.

This conversation is not made any easier by the fact that BP have bungled the handling of this issue from the start. From Tony Hayward’s ridiculous attempts to put solar panels on his house to their denial of access to dirty beaches making the “land of the free” more draconian than communist Russia used to be. President Obama has also mishandled this with his “kick ass” approach to “British Petroleum”. But at least they’ve been in the news, and had huge pressure placed on all parties to find a solution. And at least BP has admitted the mess and promised a pot of money to clean it up.

… Continue Reading

   Send article as PDF to

I’d like to Flattr you by paying for your content

Last week I posted an article around the much needed innovation and creative thinking in the pay-for-content space. One of the new additions in this space that I profiled was Flattr.

Care of Wikipedia:

Flattr is a project started by Peter Sunde and Linus Olsson. Users will be able to pay a small monthly amount and then click buttons on sites to share out the money they paid in among those sites, sort of like an Internet tip jar. The minimum users will have to pay is 2 euros per month. Sunde said, “the money you pay each month will be spread evenly among the buttons you click in a month. We want to encourage people to share money as well as content.”

I then applied for a Flattr account (invitation only) during beta phase, and this week received an invite. I’m all signed up and have Flattr’d my first person. It’s a great step, in my opinion, in the right direction. Take a look at the video below to see how it works. Get enough people to change their thinking around paying for content, and then signing up to services like Flattr, and we’re moving forward nicely.

   Send article as PDF to

In solving the ‘Talent’ crisis, it’s time for South and North to jointly solve the ‘gravitas’ problem

If you take a look at the state of business education in the world today, you’d have to conclude that we’ve never been in a better position to take our organisations forward to places we’ve only dreamed of. There’s never been more business education available than there is currently. We have more business schools, both physically and on the internet. More people are going through these formal programmes than ever before. There’s also never been more access to information informally than ever before. Almost anyone can get access to some of the greatest thinking with regards to business.

And yet there’s a shortage of people to fill key positions in most organisation I speak to, no matter the continent they find themselves on. The opportunities abound and yet there aren’t enough people to take them up. However, I contend, it’s not that there’s a shortage of educated people to fill these spaces. The problem we have is that there’s a shortage of people who have the required depth, gravitas and experience. And in my opinion, no number of business education programmes can fix this problem.

Depth, gravitas and experience are not learned in a classroom (no matter how good it is). These characteristics emerge on the job. They develop through numerous and varied experiences over time. And if this is the main process by which you aquire them, then there are some interesting modern challenges and obstacles we have to deal with:

1. The length of tenure of many young people is getting shorter and shorter, before they shift jobs, companies and industries.
2. Companies have placed significant pressure and stress on their managers and leaders by thinning head count. ‘Grey Beard’ availability to transfer knowledge and experience is becoming scarcer and scarcer.
3. More digital engagement and therefore less personal engagement. Technology doesn’t necessarily add any extra value you weren’t expecting. It does what you ask it and then moves on.
4. From a demographics perspective, the developed world, first world, northern hemisphere (I know these descriptors are weak) has an interesting challenge. Theirs is a number problem. When you look at their demographic shape you notice very quickly that there are more Baby Boomers retiring than the number of ‘replacements’ coming through in Gen X. Where do they find the extra people they need?
5. Through the same filter, the developing world, 3rd world and southern hemisphere have the inverse problem. It’s not numbers, because their demographic shape is a pyramid. More than enough people but insufficient resource to train and develop this large number. Add to that senior people being attracted to the developed world to fill their numbers problem.

… Continue Reading

   Send article as PDF to

Reaching the Tipping Point in the shift from books to e-readers

Malcolm Gladwell’s book, The  Tipping Point, explores the idea that products, ideas, values, etc can be tipped, or do tip when certain criteria are ‘activated’. Wikipedia describes a Tipping Point (sociologically) as:

In sociology, a tipping point or angle of repose is the event of a previously rare phenomenon becoming rapidly and dramatically more common. The phrase was coined in its sociological use by Morton Grodzins, by analogy with the fact in physics that adding a small amount of weight to a balanced object can cause it to suddenly and completely topple.

Applied to the world of books and e-readers, a tipping point will be reached when more digital books (e-books) are sold than traditional paper books. Of course there are many who believe this will never happen, but these predictions have history stacked against them. Think music, video, radio, TV, theatre, etc, etc.

I wondered what the signs of an emerging Tipping Point would look like, and this morning smiled a little because of an event in my house.

I’m writing this post in the hope that other’s with similar stories might add to the post (comment below) to build a list of criteria.

My event happened while looking for our recently acquired Kindle. I couldn’t find it in any of the ‘usual spots’. Gave up looking and went for a shower. As I walked into the bathroom I spotted it on the floor next to the toilet : ) Had me laughing for a little while and realised this may be a sure sign that books are out and Kindle’s are in. In my house anyway.

If you have any anecdotes that point to a Tipping Point, please share them in the comment box below.

   Send article as PDF to

America reinvented – as a hub nation

The American response to the BP catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico is a sad sign that the promise of the Obama presidency is unlikely to be fulfilled. Obama promised change – specifically he promised that he would change how America governed itself and how it related to the rest of the world. The internal governance issues are a topic for another time, and Obama cannot be blamed for the almost completely irrational response of the right wing Republicans to almost everything he has done. That’s a sad inditement of the state of America at the moment.

But my concern is with how America is approaching the world and its role as the largest superpower (I do not think they are the “only” superpower – India, China, the European Union and even Russia might argue with such a label). In a badly thought through moment, President Obama recently ranted about BP’s oil spill by asking “Who’s ass can I kick?”. And he repeatedly referred to them as “British Petroleum” – a name they gave up a long time ago (in part because they’re a global company, in his case, employing over 40,000 US workers). This is typical America – running around the planet “kicking ass”. Not a nice way to exercise power and influence.

Add to this their current debates about immigrants and protecting their borders. It seems that America has descended once again to myopic self-interest, and an “us versus them” mindset. What a pity. What a shame.

Recently, The Economist suggested that America could transform itself by thinking of itself as a hub nation. It’s an interesting insight and mind experiment. If only America seemed able to listen. Read the article here, or an extract below.

… Continue Reading

   Send article as PDF to

McKinsey report on Africa – and it’s good news!

Global consulting company, McKinsey, have just released a report entitled, “Lions on the move: The progress and potential of African economies” (June 2010). It was part of a larger “package” of reports on Africa (click here to view them all).

Their report is bullish on Africa, providing some interesting reading for those with little knowledge of “the dark continent” and for those who are ignoring Africa in their future strategies and growth plans for developing markets. Here are some of the highlights and facts (many from the McKinsey report, but also from other sources):

… Continue Reading

   Send article as PDF to

PODCAST – Graeme Codrington speaks to some trends around the New World of Work

Graeme Codrington’s website describes him as:

an expert on the new world of work and multi-generational workplaces. He is a keynote presenter, author, futurist, facilitator and strategy consultant working across multiple industries and sectors. He blends cutting-edge research, thought leading insights with humour, a conversational style and multimedia-driven presentations to create unforgettable experiences that add real value.

I’ve worked with Graeme for 8 years now, and without too much duress, acknowledge 99% of the description : )

He’s always an interesting person to speak to as he continues to bring new and interesting thoughts to the table. Not just in his subjects of passion, but in almost anything you’re talking about. It was therefore great to be able to track him down while speaking at a conference in Spain to ask him to talk more about the New World of Work.

If you’d like to listen to this audio track please click on the following:

• iTunes automatic subscription
• RSS Feed

   Send article as PDF to

PODCAST – Mike Saunders on Social Media trends and shifts

   Send article as PDF to

The modern business plan (by Seth Godin)

I’m a big fan of Seth Godin. I recently signed up to get his daily blog entry sent to me by email – these are often just thought bullets, but sometimes he writes a longer piece that’s very insightful and incisive.

A few days ago, he suggested a new approach to business plans. I have long been a critic of the type of strategic sessions that companies engage in – taking management teams away fr a few days to come up with a tweaked “vision”, “mission” and “purpose” statement, and a long list of strategic objectives. Watch a video of me having fun with this at a conference.

Seth, in fact, talked about this recently as well, saying:

But you’re not saying anything – [this] is the problem with just about every lame speech, every overlooked memo, every worthless bit of boilerplate foisted on the world: you write and write and talk and talk and bullet and bullet but no, you’re not really saying anything.

It took me two minutes to find a million examples. Here’s one, “The firm will remain competitive in the constantly changing market for defense legal services by creating and implementing innovative and effective methods of providing cost-effective, quality representation and services for our clients.”

Write nothing instead. It’s shorter.

Most people work hard to find artful ways to say very little. Instead of polishing that turd, why not work harder to think of something remarkable or important to say in the first place?

But, back to his thoughts on business plans, Seth suggest that we abandon the traditional headings in our plans, and develop them under five new ones.

… Continue Reading

   Send article as PDF to

Will we ever pay for content again?

Anyone following the conversation around ‘pay for content’ understands it’s murky ground. It’s the Holy Grail of anyone with content to offer in a world in which it seems that free is the trend and the world as we know it is going to change forever. The music, video, book, newspaper, and magazine industries are reeling in pain as revenues drop and people move swiftly to content that’s free.

New business models are popping up everywhere as the ‘traditionalists’ attempt to hold onto revenue to support the business model that made them what they were yesterday. Just today I came up against one of these new models.

Last week I spoke at one of the Methodist Church of South Africa regional synods in Durban. I was asked to contribute some thoughts around communicating to younger generations in a Church context. Which I did. I discovered via Twitter that some (or all) of my contribution had been included in an article in a local Durban paper, The Mercury. I went online to find the article (which I quite easily did) only to discover that it had been included in their ‘Premium Content’ section and that I had to subscribe to the paper in order to access it. I don’t want a subscription to The Mercury. I just wanted access to my article. I have enough access to news via the internet and the papers that service Johannesburg. I’m stuck. I’d pay to access my article but I don’t want to pay to access all that The Mercury has to offer. My solution is to use my network to scan the article and mail it to me. A lose-lose for both parties.

I don’t think The Mercury has the right model at this stage. I think they’re going to have to go back ‘in’ and re-design their model.

Via Twitter (@sidneyeve) I got a link to an interesting 3 min video from James McQuivey (an analyst at Forrester Research) who does a great job describing the future of ‘paid for’ access to content. I think what he has to say is the model that The Mercury needs to be looking at (I dont’ want access to all their content, but I do want access to my content)

The interview from the article is summed up by:

It’s the most common question I get in my travels: Will people ever pay for content again?

   Send article as PDF to

How various industries are using Twitter

Mashable, the social media guide website

10 Ways Universities Are Engaging Alumni Using Social Media

Click the title above to access the full story and all the details. The author suggests the following ten uses of social media uses to engage almuni. Some of these may be clever to use with corporate “alumni” too:

• Helping Alumni Find Jobs
• Collaboration and Connecting With Students
• Fundraising: From E-mails to Tweets
• Training Alumni To Use Social Media
• Meeting Alumni Where They’re At
• Providing Tools To Spread Information
• Alumni-Generated Content
• Promoting Alumni Networks
• Mobile Reunions
• Connecting The Dots: Google Maps

How Hospitality Companies are Using Social Media for Real Results

I was excited to find this article title, but disappointed at the content. They suggest the following uses:

• Personalizing Customer Service
• Storytelling
• Making Good with Mom
• Employee Education

I’d suggest that the following could easily be added:

• Geotagged and location-based tips and specials in the venue, and in the surrounding areas
• Event announcements and daily information
• Special deals and giveaways
• Enhancement of entertainment options
• Management of staff, schedules and staff interaction
• Scheduling of activities, including allowing guests to requests services (e.g. wakeup calls, reservations at restuarants and spas, etc)
• Feedback (and responses to feedback)
• Use “objects that tweet” to manage facilities

What would you add?

   Send article as PDF to

BP’s record – not just an oil spill – and a lesson for us all

In March 2007, a blog entry I wrote received quite a lot of attention in the South African press. In it, I suggested that certain industries had the potential to get themselves into a lot of trouble if they chased the goal of improved efficiency to its logical conclusion. The Economist (“Browne Out“, 18 Jan 2007) had pointed out that oil companies have so stripped out costs and employees, that all their engineers work on the ragged edge of their abilities and capabilities. I wrote:

If (and when!) they have problems, oil companies are unlikely to have the capacity to respond quickly and effectively in emergency situations. Ruthlessly cutting costs eventually strips out the ability of a company to do what it has to do. It stretches staff, and demoralises them as well, often beyond their ability to cope with situations that arise. In oil companies, as in other industries, this can have catastrophic results, in the glare of public scrutiny.

Obviously, a lot of media attention is currently focused on BP and its catastrophic oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Greenpeace is going to town with a campaign to “rebrand” BP (see it here). But, behind the obvious story is another even more damaging one.

US Occupational Safety and Health Administration records show that in the last 3 years, BP has had 760 “egregious and willful safety violations” (download PDF report here). To put this into some industry perspective, during that same period Sunoco and ConocoPhillips both had 8, Citgo had 2, and Exxon had but 1. Yes, that’s the same Exxon that used to hold the record for the worst US oil disaster! One violation for them, and 760 for BP. That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, doesn’t it?

I can’t comment on that, nor on the response (or lack thereof) by the OSHA. I can say that it currently looks as if BP are going to take responsibility and sort things out. But that will run up against the point I was making three years ago – what capacity do they have now that they’re in crisis?

There is obviously a case for efficiency. But there is also an immensely big case to be made for carrying some excess capacity in your company. It allows you to give employees some time to think. It means you can slow things down just a touch, and do them properly. It provides space for creativity and innovation. It enhances work-life balance, and therefore quality of life for employees. So, possibly the profit won’t be quite as good as it might have been. But the long term sustainability of your company is much more secure.

I hate to be proven right with my predictions of the worst. But, in this case, BP, “I told you so”. Hopefully the rest of us can learn some lessons here too.

   Send article as PDF to

Don’t look now – it’s China, but not where you expect her

Whenever people talk of China’s role in the world, there are normally two thoughts that spring to mind. China is fast ‘colonising’ the developing world, building key strategic relationships with resource countries around the world. And, manufacturing jobs in the developed world are being taken over by Chinese factories, thus hurting (or destroying) manufacturing employment in other countries.

Both these things may be true. But there is another reality as well. Realising that logistics (transport of both resources and final product) is expensive (and often dangerous), China is increasingly looking to offshore its factories. Add to that a dwindling talent pool in China itself. They may have many millions of unskilled hands at their disposal, but China does not have limitless supplies of skilled engineers and managers. China is taking its factories to the world.

I heard today of a large Chinese car manufacturer that has signed a deal with Egypt that will build factories in the North African country, and employ many tens of thousands of Egyptians. And then, a recent Fortune magazine carried the cover story about China building factories in South Carolina, and employing American workers in their hundreds. Read the story here, or an extract below.

This is not the China you know and fear. This is a new step for China. It really IS going to be China’s century, isn’t it. Now where is that Mandarin phrase book?? Ah, zhè shì shén me? xie xie.

… Continue Reading

   Send article as PDF to

Free video course: Global trends shaping the new world of work

The team at SuccessTV do a great job of providing “bite-sized” video resources on hundreds of different topics. And all for free. Check their website out, and use the resources they make available.

I recently recorded a short video course on the key trends shaping the new world of work. This is part of my “TIDES of change” programme (click here for more information).

You can access the following videos at SuccessTV’s ManagementSuccess website:

• Technology trends: Social Media
• Technology trends: Augmented Reality
• Technology trends: Mobility and cloud computing
• Demographics: Aging Population
• Demographics: Global Migration

If you’d like to book me to speak about these trends, and other disruptive forces shaping the new world of work, please contact me using this form.

   Send article as PDF to

They know where you’re going, and will reward you for where you’ve been

Those of you old enough may recognise my borrowing of a Talking Heads song for the subject line of this post : )

Of course I’m talking about location-based social networking platforms. The likes of FourSquare, Gowala, Loopt, etc. It’s not the first, or the last, time I’ll write about this, because it’s a big and interesting happening. It will change how marketers market, and how we will consume. When you incentives people to ‘log into’ new places, or to ‘check in’ to the same place as many times as you can, that begins to change behaviour. It’s a wonderful trend to watch.

The New York Times recently posted an article, Turning Consumer Loyalty into a Cell Phone Game, focussing on how to use these platforms as an alternative to loyalty cards. At long last! Do we really need the number of loyalty cards that are offered to us? Do retailers really think we want them? I guess some of us do, otherwise they wouldn’t keep churning them out, but it’s a pain to have to carry an extra bag just to move your loyalty cards around with you.

For retailers, these games and apps offer a new form of mobile marketing that goes well beyond a minibanner ad by rewarding consumers, individually, for their loyalty. And unlike paper cards, stores can use the data they collect from people’s cellphones to learn more about who their customers are and how they behave.

In the UK Domino’s Pizza is using FourSquare in a creative way. On Wednesday nights, the mayor of each of their restaurants is offered a free small pizza. Mashable covers the concept if you’re looking for some more detail in ‘Domino’s UK Rewards FourSquare Mayors with a Free Pizza‘.

The promotion could easily help the corporation drum up more sales. On Foursquare, users receive notifications when their friends check in at venues. Pizza checkin notifications from friends could certainly work to convince hungry Foursquare users to order or pick up Domino’s pizza.

In South Africa Global Wraps is a great FourSquare example. You can see how they’re using FourSquare here.

This is only going to get more interesting as more and more companies begin to apply their minds as to how they can tap into our interesting openness with where we’re going and where we’ve been.

   Send article as PDF to

Why supermarkets will fail, and other nonsense predictions

I am sitting in a Leadership Conference in Beijing, China (details here), and listening to Dr Jenny Darroch, a Huffington Post columnist and Professor of Marketing at the Peter F Drucker School & Masatoshi Ito Graduate School of Management. She highlighted a really excellent quote from the 1930s about why supermarkets will fail (she also blogged it recently).

It’s from a 1960 article in the Harvard Business Review called “Marketing Myopia” by Theodore Levitt. In it he provided a quote from a 1936 National Wholesale Grocers’ Association Conference to describe the reaction of the Association towards supermarkets. Basically, the advice of the Association spokesperson was that there was nothing to fear – supermarkets would fail because all customers really wanted was a friendly neighborhood store:

… there [was] nothing to fear. …the supers’ narrow appeal to the price buyer limited the size of their market. They had to draw from miles around. When imitators came, there would be wholesale liquidations as volume fell. The current high sales of the supers was said to be partly due to their novelty. Basically people want convenient neighborhood grocers. If the neighborhood stores cooperate with their suppliers, pay attention to their costs, and improve their services, they would be able to weather the competition until it blew over.

Spurred on by this gem, I did a quick search for other great predictions that now seem very stupid and embarrassing. I’ve included a list of my favourites below.

But before you read it, the question must be asked: What things do you think are ‘givens’ in your industry – and what if you’re wrong? Or, to put it another way, in the words of Mark Twain: “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

… Continue Reading

   Send article as PDF to

Some (more) gems from our archives – valuable reading!

This blog has been running since 2003, and has nearly 2,000 individual entries. At one level it is a living library of the “new world of work”, captured as it emerges around us. I have recently taken some time to troll through the archives, from day one, and discovered again some remarkable gems. This is the second in my series of “gems from the archives”.

These articles from early 2005, are still well worth reading. They were prescient then, and remain important now, as we think about the implications of the new world of work that we find ourselves in. Enjoy:

• The goal of diversity is not harmony
• Cultural intelligence: Individual interactions across cultures
• Would you work for Halliburton (This is even more relevant as it appears Halliburton are the ultimate cause of the current BP Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster)
• Lessons from where you least expect them
• The last man to wear pantaloons
• Apres moi le deluge – dealing with short term thinking in leadership
• Conversation vs Information
• Chaotic management
• Leading diversity: an invitation to leaders everywhere
• Organising the future: The Individualized Corporation

Happy reading!

   Send article as PDF to