Africa’s Gift to Silicon Valley: How to Track a Crisis

A report under this title appeared in the New York Times on 12 March 2010. It’s a great example of a few things, but especially of the power of social media, and the fact that innovation (and competition) can come from anywhere these days.

Read the story of how technology developed in the aftermath of Kenya’s disputed elections was used in Haiti to track responses to the crisis there. You can read the original at the NYT website, or read an extract below. (As an aside, you’ve got to love how US journalists can always rely on the “war on terror” to grab attention).

The company states that “the Ushahidi Engine is a platform that allows anyone to gather distributed data via SMS, email or web and visualize it on a map or timeline. Our goal is to create the simplest way of aggregating information from the public for use in crisis response.” The company’s website is http://www.ushahidi.com/ – check them out.

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The future of money

For years banks and credit card companies have held a strangle hold over the movement of money and charged exorbitant rates for doing so. Now this is changing and fast.

Michale Ivey the founder of Twitpay has devised a system, using code that PayPal made available to him, that allows people to make payments using tweets. The way it works is you include the recipients’ username in their message. For example, posting the update “@johnsmith twitpay $10 for lunch” would deliver the cash to that Twitterer’s Twitpay account. Simple and brilliant!

Hundreds of engineers and entrepreneurs are now revolutionising the payment industry, attacking the payment ecosystem and seeking out ways to pull down the stronghold the banks and credit card companies have built.

Here are some examples:

- Square, a new company founded by Twitter cocreator Jack Dorsey, lets anyone accept physical credit card payments using an attachment on their iPhone, any other a smartphone or computer by plugging in a free sugar-cube-sized device — no expensive card reader required.
- A startup called Obopay, which has received funding from Nokia, allows phone owners to transfer money to one another with nothing more than a PIN.
- Amazon.com and Google are both distributing their shopping cart technologies across the Internet, letting even the lowliest etailers process credit cards for less than the old price, cutting out middlemen, and figuring out ways to bundle payments to sidestep the credit card companies’ constant nickel-and-diming.
- Facebook appears to be building its own payment system for virtual goods purchased on its social network and on external sites.
- Apple has given iTunes developers the ability to charge subscription fees through their applications, making iTunes the gateway for an entirely new breed of transaction.

About 20 percent of all online transactions now take place over so-called alternative payment systems, according to consulting firm Javelin Strategy and Research. It expects that number to grow to nearly 30 percent in just three years.

This is going to revolutionise the way we use money eroding the monopoly that banks have. Serves them right for causing the Great Recession I’m looking forward to the day that we can all bypass banks. Zopa is another example of the new breed of talented companies that is reshaping the world of finance. Zopa is a lending and borrowing exchange where real people sidestep the banks to get a better deal. I’m going to research and write an article on innovative companies that are changing the world of finance so what this space.

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Twitter 10 Billion – quality not quantity

In the last few hours the 10 billionth tweet was tweeted on Twitter. As one would imagine there was all kinds of hype and excitement, as Tweeps with the necesary skills attempted to predict the time it would happen, and I imagine even be ‘the one’?

My last tweet was 9999989724. Wild. Will be at 10 billion by next tweet. – @Scobleizer

… and then seconds later….

Yup, already hit 10 billion. My last tweet was 10000011727 so now we can get on with real news. – @Scobleizer

This morning when I woke up it was all over, and followed:

Twitter reaches 10 billion tweets. (2 artcles)http://bit.ly/cApU1O http://bit.ly/a7KKcD – @MelanieMinnaar

…. to find who the Tweep was and what they Tweeted?

I’ll save you the pain of going along there yourself. Drumroll, the 10 billionth tweet on Twitter….. was a protected user, so the identity of the person is not known, and secondly because of that, nobody knows what they tweeted.

A complete let down. I’m not sure what I was expecting, but it felt like it should have been one of those moments. In hindsight I realise my expectations were way off the mark.

Here’s what it’s taught me….. Twitter is not about quantity. It’s all about quality. The 10 billiont tweet was a let-down because the quality was terrible. It also doesn’t matter how many people follow you, or how many you follow, if the quality is bad, the entire experience is bad.

Keith Coats, a colleague of mine, often quotes a mentor of his… “Worry not the size of the stage on which you will be called to perform, worry that you have something to say!”

Nuf Sed

When social media grows up… it will change everything

Download a copy of this article in PDF format – right click here. The contents of this article can be presented as a keynote or a workshop for your team. Contact our UK or South African offices to find out how.

Twitter recently hosted it’s billionth Tweet and Facebook had over 500 million users by the end of 2009, continuing its trend of doubling every nine months or so. It is difficult to continue to argue that social media is nothing more than a fad, and an increasing number of companies are starting to make use of these technologies.

But most of these companies are merely using social networks as a means to communicate (mainly with customers, but sometimes with staff as well) or to market their products and services. These are simple – and obvious – applications, and soon you’ll just be another voice in cacophony of online noise. Unfortunately, most “social media experts” focus only on these aspects of online social networking, and are overhyping the benefits and underemphasising the cultural shifts required for companies to truly benefit. They are missing a really important trend with huge implications for every organisation in every industry and sector.

The reason that social media has taken off so quickly is that it is more than a fad. It is, in fact, merely the technological expression of a values shift that has been taking place for a number of years. It will therefore be a shaping force in the world over the next decade. It might not be the answer to all your problems as many social media pundits are predicting. But it will definitely change everything, and more and more companies are starting to see the benefits it offers. A revolution awaits us.

You can hardly turn on a TV news channel or read a business magazine these days without being overwhelmed by requests to “follow my tweets”, “check out our blog” or “send us your videos”. Social media has gone mainstream. But most business users and organisations are treating it like a gimmick, and only gaining a fraction of the value they could. If they understood the true nature of what is happening, they’d know that social media is merely an expression of a deeper trend that has the potential to change everything. And they’d realise that the first companies to grasp this will have the opportunity to gain phenomenal competitive advantage in their industry. In fact, some companies have already started to do so.

Social Media 101

If you’ve missed this trend and are not sure what I’m talking about, here’s a quick primer: social media are the tools you can use to do social networking on the Internet. This involves connecting with other people, and sharing information with them digitally (yes, it’s just networking and connecting with others online). The most used tools are:

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The Internet? Bah!

Many years ago, in a South Africa finding it’s way to it’s first democratic election, a friend of mine would often say, “Don’t be a victim of your own words.” He of course was referring to saying things that might come back and bite you down the road. And in an emerging ‘New South Africa’, lots of people were saying lots of things, and plenty of them got it badly wrong.

The world of technology is another one of those ‘dramatic change spaces’ that offers up the opportunity for history to come back and bite you big time.

Here are some exerts from a Newsweek article (1995) dug up by the guys at The Next Web. Clifford Stoll, writes a piece called ‘The Internet? Bah!’. And boy does he get a whole lot wrong : ) Keep in mind that he wrote this before Google, FaceBook and Twitter.

Visionaries see a future of telecommuting workers, interactive libraries and multimedia classrooms. They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic.

The truth in no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works.

Yet Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we’ll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Intenet. Uh, sure.

There are so many beauties contained in the article. I’m tempted to drop the whole thing in as a quote. Go and have a look for yourself : )

Then there’s cyberbusiness. We’re promised instant catalog shopping–just point and click for great deals. We’ll order airline tickets over the network, make restaurant reservations and negotiate sales contracts. Stores will become obselete. So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire Internet handles in a month? Even if there were a trustworthy way to send money over the Internet–which there isn’t–the network is missing a most essential ingredient of capitalism: salespeople.

20 Inspiring Women To Follow On Twitter

I’ve become a big fan of twitter. For me it is a great example of how people want to share ideas and connect, it’s a huge social triumph. Every day I find new and interesting content and connect with very interesting people. It’s a great ideas portal and I hope someone is capturing the ideas and innovations that spring from this amazing phenomenon. The trick is to find the interesting people and cut through the riff raff of people telling you what they had for breakfast! Forbes magazine’sHalle Tacco (@halletacco) has written a great article based on research undertaken by Harvard Business Review on women twitter users and lists 20 inspiring women to follow. Interestingly she says that women are less loved on twitter and that men have 15% more followes even though there are more women users on twitter (55% to 45%). Men are also twice more likely to follow another man than a women and women are 25% more likely to follow a man than a woman…Personally I’m off now to follow all these 20 inspirational women they sound great!

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Relationship without investment – the example of online dating sites

My business partner, Barrie Bramley, has come up with a fantastic phrase to describe one of the foundational principles of social networking: “Relationship without investment“.

I think he’s spot on with this. That’s why the Oxford Dictionary voted “unfriend” the word of the year for 2009. It’s easy now to become someone’s “friend” (I have over 3,000 such “friends” on Facebook and about 1,000 “followers” on Twitter). But there are no requirements for this friendship. Engage if you want to, don’t if you don’t. And if you don’t like the group you’re currently in, just start a new one, and find those people who share your precise, niche likes or dislikes.

I do not share the concerns of those people who say this is destroying community and relationships. Of course, it has the potential to. Anti-social people can be truly and fully disconnected from the “real” world. But then, they are anti-social people anyway. People who think their Facebook friends are real friends need to wake up – it takes more than just watching someone’s status updates to build a relationship with them. But surely that’s obvious to everyone.

Social networking technologies are simply that: technologies. Technically that means that they are “enablers” (there isn’t a universally accepted definition of “technology” by the way, but most agree that it defines something that enables or provides a solution to a problem). What I mean by this is that they can be used to create community and to destroy community or relationships. The choice is ours.

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Learnings around working from home

One of the emerging requests/trends in today’s business environment centers around the mystery of ‘working from home’. Many people talk with much  gravitas about the ‘ins and outs’. However, in my experience, once you dig under the surface a little, you discover how little they know. In fact how little is known, period, about this subject (again that’s my opinion).

You can understand then, why this blog post from Inc Magazine caught my attention. The entire staff decided, as an experiment, to see what they could learn about working from home. And so home they went, for one month. What a great project : )

This article is written one week in, and they give a brief summary of the learnings so far:

Remember to eat

Prepare for e-mail overload

Get out of the house

Get a comfortable chair

Video chat is your friend

Don’t forget to stop

You can actually get stuff done

In the article they unpack each of these 7 points. Worth following and reading for sure….

Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should

My colleague in the UK, Graeme Codrington, posted “3-d TV is here” a week or so back. It’s a short post about Sky News launching 3D TV.  When Graeme writes he’s normally very definite in his opinion, and he’s not scared to put it out there. If you read his 3D TV post, you’ll notice he ends with a fairly ‘limp’ conclusion around the future of 3D TV. I haven’t spoken to him about his lack of definite view, but based on his post, I share his same feelings around 3D TV. I think it’s a limp idea.

• Perhaps it’s because I haven’t seen the ‘new 3D TV’s’ needed to enhance 3D in this medium. What I have seen (my kids movies) has always left me feeling a little disappointed, experience wise.
• Then there’s the idea of 3D glasses lying around my house. We already have enough of a problem storing, not standing on, dropping, and spilling things on multiple remote controls, all sorts of Wii controls, iPod chargers, iPods, etc, etc. The thought of more paraphernalia to enhance my viewing experience far from excites me.
• While we’re on the glasses, how many are we going to need? Or will it become acceptable to ask friends to bring their own? And how silly might I look with ’sunglasses on’ when friends or family come around to watch TV?

The obvious next step from 3D is going to be  holographic TV (Holy TV?) . That’s 3D on steroids. That isn’t going to need any extra goggles to watch, and while it may mean some new equipment in the viewing area, the massive leap in expeirence from what we have now to that, will be worth whatever pain I may have to go through.

Is 3D then, simply a transitional technology between now and then? If it is, I’m guessing those that run the TV world have done their sums and figure they’re going to sell enough boxes to make the investment worth it? I’m not sure it switches me on enough to get into the game. But then again, peer pressure and great advertising may be all they need to make me a convert.

Still I do think there are times when being able to do/create/buy things doesn’t mean you’ve got to. I think this may be one of those times. Time will tell, and in the mean time I’ll go over to Graeme’s house to watch on his 3D telly : )

Knowing What You Don’t Know is Important

Yes it’s true. I’m getting coached in ‘Social Media’. “About time” some might say but it’s not just about how to engage in the various kinds of social media available – it’s about learning how to, ‘connect the dots’. It is about understanding how to work with all the options in an integrated manner that makes professional and personal sense. I suspect many more of my ilk could do with some time with my Coach and the reality is that knowing this stuff simply isn’t optional – it’s an imperative.

W. C. Howell is credited with the model with which most of us are familiar when it comes to acquiring a skill. The model moves from a level of ‘unconscious incompetence’ to ‘conscious incompetence’ to ‘conscious competence’ to ultimately, ‘unconscious competence’.  So what does this look like when applied to my development path in the area of social media education?

Unconscious incompetence: A what? ‘c-o-m-p-u-t-e-r. Don’t only major international companies and governments have access to this kind of thing?  I’m not sure I’ll need one, but thanks anyway. The future? Yes, yes…(late 1980’s – early 1990’s)

Conscious incompetence: Wow…how do you switch this thing on? It sure takes up a lot of desk space but looks important, even impressive…where did you say I turn it on? How come there is this blue screen…and what’s that noise? Show me how you did that…that’s really cool, I need to be able to do that stuff. Hold on, not so fast…I just need to make a note of that. (mid 1990’s – early 2000’s)

Conscious competence: Sure I’m on Facebook and I even know that ‘Twitter’ isn’t a term of insult nor is it some sort of birdcall heard only in the mating season. Sure I know how to access that information, open multiple windows and load useful software. How did I ever survive without email?  I know how to solve that problem…just reboot…there see, anything else I can help you with? With some concentration and focus I can link some of my technology gadgets and to really impress fellow travelers, even produce my iPod on flights whilst banging away on my laptop keyboard. Laptop? Apple of course.  Check out that cool little Apple logo that lights up on the lid! (mid – late 2000’s)

Unconscious competence: My tweet directs people to my latest blog which drives folk to the article and website resulting in conversations, connections and further helpful information, relationships and opportunities. There, dots connected and a seamless integration of knowing the why and how behind it all. By catching up I’ve actually been able to slow down and I feel an intricate part of an amazing reality that is unfolding all around me…connections, information and well, relevance. (the future)

Knowing what you don’t know is important. It is your learning pathway into Tomorrow, and it is a journey that shouldn’t be delayed. Let me know and I will put you onto a great social media Coach…

A breakup, bowiechick, webcams and Logitech’s increased sales

I am currently at the F-Secure partners conference in Vienna, Austria, and have been listening to Richard Gatarski speak about a passion for social media. One incredible story illustrates the power that new social media forms have to influence brands, and how little many established companies (even those who sell products and services that are designed for this new world) know about this.

In March 2006, Melody, a teenager better known by her YouTube name, “Bowiechick”, was feeling pretty depressed. She had just broken up with her boyfriend. So, she decided to record a vlog (a video blog entry). In order to cheer herself up, she experimented with some cool software that came with her webcam. By the end of the 75 second video, she had had a bit of fun and was feeling better. She posted the result at YouTube (see it here). This clip has now been viewed nearly 2 million times!

As you could anticipate, a few of her friends saw it, and wrote notes to her, encouraging her to cheer up and move on. But then people started asking her about the software she used to make the video itself. More and more people asked, so she created a little video to explain how her Logitech webcam and software worked. This 2 minute video has been viewed over 3 million times. Watch it here.

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3-d TV is here

This weekend, Sky TV in the UK will become the first to broadcast a live sports event in 3-d. This is a preview of regular channel that will be launched by Sky in April. It will be available at no extra cost to anyone with an HD box.

Read the press release here.

The way we access data and engage with media is changing rapidly. The (horribly named) iPad was launched yesterday, amidst much hype (Apple knows how to do this, don’t they?). Small, portable, handheld devices, with unbelievable resolution and engaging visuals are the way of the future. 3-d images form a big part of that, too, I am sure.

Why you shouldn’t change your Twitter Profile Pic

There are literally thousands of articles and opinions out there spelling out the ‘laws’ of how to use Twitter. If the authors of those articles were honest, they’d admit that those ’so-called laws’ are really just opinions. Their opinions. How on earth can anyone claim, at this early stage in Twitter’s life, to have a list of irrefutable laws’?

This post falls into the opinion category then. An irrefutable opinion according to me : )

I’m on Twitter everyday. Several times a day. It’s become the biggest influence in my world when it comes to learning. I’ve come to trust the voices and thoughts of a group of people, many of whom I have never met, to share their insights in a variety of fields that interest me. Even some that don’t.

I follow aprox 400 people, and as I scroll through my Twitter feed on my iPhone (I use 4 different Twitter Apps) my most relied upon method of finding those people I really enjoy is through their Twitter Profile Pic. I imagine I should be using their usernames for this, but I don’t. I’m a picture person. I possibly should be using ‘Twitter Lists’? I don’t, I’m a picture person.

And so when someone updates their image I lose them in the noise of my stream. It sometimes can take me weeks to re-orientate myself to their new image.

And that’s my irrefutable opinion then. It’s also a plea to those interesting people I rely on everyday. Don’t change who you are. You don’t need to update your ‘image’. I’ve come to like and appreciate you just the way you are : )

P.S. While writing this I found a mildly amusing post on 10 types of Twitter Profile Avatars. Click here to see for yourself.

A Conversation around Google and China

I began a brief e-mail conversation recently with my colleague in the UK, Graeme Codrington, around the China v Google story. Or Google v China, depending on who you side with : ) I thought I’d take it online with Graeme, in case there are other voices that would like to weigh in on this very interesting unfolding story?

For those who aren’t in the know, very simply, Google has accused the Chinese government of hacking into the Gmail accounts of Chinese activists to get hold of confidential information. In light of this, Google has effectively decided not to play ball with the Chinese government any longer. (Read here for a more detailed round up)

Effectively it’s a clash of two worlds, two powers, two philosophies, and two of a number of other things.

• China represents the old world. Google the new world.
• Google is the heavyweight in the virtual world. China the heavyweight in the real world.
• China subscribes to a more closed command and control philosophy. Google to a more open invite and participate philosophy.

For a really quick and easy read that pulls this sort of thinking together, read this Harvard Business Review Blog entry.

The quest for monopoly, monopsony, and control. That’s yesterday’s high ground, and China’s focused like a laser beam on it. China’s moves are the textbook stuff of b-school’s blackest arts. Through larger distribution, fiercer litigation, greater exclusivity, cheaper and faster production, a bigger cash pile, advantage is gained.

But the high ground has shifted. The new high ground is an ethical edge. It’s not about having more; it’s about doing better. It’s not about protecting exports, pressuring buyers and suppliers, price discriminating against the powerless, and programming consumers to buy, buy, buy — it’s about making people, communities, and society authentically better off. It’s not about caring less — but caring more. It’s not about ruthlessness. It’s about mindfulness.

Of course the story is in it’s infancy. Of course there’s much skepticism that surrounds it. For example Google has been here before and didn’t respond like this, so why now?  Google also derives only 2% of it’s income from China, so taking a stand that may lead to them having to pull out of China isn’t as costly, as say, Microsoft or Intel.

My fascination with the story centers mostly around the stand off of these two world powers. Each starting from a very different place, but building towards what could be a spectacular case study for all of us. I even wonder if it has the potential to shape how we relate to each other in the future?

My question is, will Google have the courage to take a firm line and keep it?  And possibly a little more complex, is this stand-off the equivalent of what the Berlin Wall was for Russia and the US? Only this time it’s a virtual wall. And if so, what are the consequences to people in China, and people outside of China?

Hollywood, explain this… (Avatar breaks two very different records)

In almost every country it is being shown, James Cameron’s latest movie, Avatar is breaking box office records. It has already made over $ 1 billion, and is well on its way to being the best selling movie of all time.

It is already listed in IMDB’s top 50 greatest movies of all time.

But, in its first week, it was also the most pirated movie of all time with 980,000 illegal downloads of the movie. Hollywood (and the music industry) claim that illegal downloads will destroy their industry and steal money from producers.

So, Hollywood, explain Avatar!

The problem is not with illegal downloads. The problem for you is that quality is now judged more democratically – and more brutally. Good films, and good music, will still sell well. James Cameron is proof of that! Stop whining and fix your industry.

Free video course on Managing Generation Y at work

In December 09, Graeme Codrington recorded a series of short videos on Managing Generation Y at Work. This was done with Success.tv in London. These videos are now available for free:

The videos are:

• The New World of Work – an introduction to what we do, and the concept that drives our thinking
• The New Generation
• Managing Young Talent
• Personalising the Workplace
• Managing Meetings in the digital age

Feel free to use these videos in your companies. But, if you’d like more details or have one of our team speak live at your next event, why not contact us and make a booking enquiry.

Which movie does that come from? (Wonder know more!)

I picked up a tweet recently which talked of a great new resource called MovieClips. Simple concept – you can remember a line from a movie, but cannot for the life of you remember which movie it’s from. You could search the Internet Movie Database or Google, of course, and find a text reference to it.

But why not search a movie database where the output is both the movie AND the clip you were looking for? That’s what Movie Clips does – 3 minute clips from movies with an exciting search feature. They have kicked off with about 12,000 clips, so you won’t find everything you’re looking for. But hopefully it will be supported and will grow. What a great idea!

But, I want to say more about this. When I checked it out, it told me that the content was only available in the USA and Canada, and that I should email them (link was provided) if I was from another country and wanted access. I was disappointed, but sent the email anyway. I expected very little. The next day, I received an email (from a real human being) saying that they had just switched on the functionality for the UK and that I had access. Oh, and could I comment on the speed and usability, too, please. They’re phasing in different countries, so as not to overwhelm their servers. Good thinking! Great service! Excellent connection! Superb product!

I’m already a huge fan! Long live MovieClips. Check them out.

In a Web 2.0 world, business has it’s head buried firmly in the sand

I’m curious. Curious about business’ lack of engagement with Twitter  / FaceBook / Tumblr / Google and everything else Web 2.0. I would have thought that any communication channel getting the sort of traction, focus, attention and subscription that these channels are getting, would have business engaging like a love struck teenager who’d just discovered their perfect partner?

But it’s not so. So not so. So far, the majority of my experience and observation is that business has been an extremely poor performer in these spaces. Take a look at these points from Jeffbulla’s Blog:

1. 73 percent of Fortune 100 companies registered a total of 540 Twitter accounts.
2. About three-quarters (76 percent) of those accounts did not post tweets very often.
3. More than half (52 percent) were not actively engaged (This was measured by engagement metrics such as numbers of links, hashtags, references and retweets.)

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A lesson in personalisation – your very own font

One of the trends we’ve been tracking for some time at TomorrowToday is the growing desire for personalisation. This is more than mere customisation. It is about creating something completely unique and tailored specifically for a particular individual. Nike was one of the first to make the news with their offering of customised shoes – you bought the shoes online and then selected a customised tagline to emboss onto the shoes. (They had some fun with people selecting offensive slogans, and had to have a level of censorship that ultimately backfired on them. But the idea was the right one).

I keep my eyes open for examples of customisation – big and small. Here’s a small one, but for someone who spends a significant time in front of a computer screen, it certainly grabbed my attention. Fontcapture.com will allow you to create your very own custom font face. It’s free and will take you about ten minutes to do. Download the font form, write your font face on their template, scan it, upload and wait a minute or so for the font file to be sent to you. Simple. Neat. Nice!

I don’t know how I’ll use this new font yet, but it’s nice to see my handwriting unfolding across my screen as I dictate this blog entry using voice recognition. One day, I’ll be replaced by this machine. I hope people notice if that happens….

(PS – for a more indepth look at the trend of personalisation, check out TrendHunter Pro’s report on it here).

Book Review – Free: The Future of a Radical Price

Chris Anderson is the editor of Wired, one of my favourite magazines. He has written two great books based on HBR articles. The first was “The Long Tail” – an awesome concept (Google it). Now, he has offered us another view of how the Internet is changing the world. It’s “Free”. A deputy editor at The Economist (my favourite magazine of all) has written a review. You can read it here, or below. Buy the book at Amazon.co.uk or Amazon.com or Kalahari – South Africa.

Chris Anderson is a guru of the information age. Under his editorship, Wired, the voice of the digital world, has won zillions of prizes. His speeches on the economics of the internet command vast sums. He’s a brilliant journalist; I know that, having worked with him before he was a big shot. But it is as an author that Anderson has gained most fame. He writes, broadly, about how digital technology has made the world a better place. His first book, The Long Tail, was hugely influential. In the bricks-and-mortar world, it said, in which the costs of marketing and distribution are high, companies make money by selling vast quantities of a few blockbuster items. In the digital world, in which the costs of marketing and distribution are low, companies can make money by selling small numbers of lots of different items.

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S+B’s Best Business Books of 2009

Booz & Co’s Strategy + Business ezine is one of my favourites, and one I always make time to read. Last week’s edition looked at the best business books of 2009, selected by their top team, and helpfully categorised.

If you want to read their reasoning, and some excellent background comments, start here. All I am going to do is list the books (and make it easy for you to buy them – choose from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk or Kalahari.net – for South Africa):

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After Shock: the five trends disrupting business in the next 5 years

Updated in March 2010 (now with an added Executive summary in the PDF format)

Download a copy of this article in PDF format – right click here. The contents of this article can be presented as a keynote or a workshop for your team. Contact our UK or South African offices to find out how.

As the world slowly emerges out of recession over the next few years, it will become increasingly clear that this was more than just an economic downturn. Disruptive forces are significantly reshaping the world of work. Some of these changes have been brewing for a decade or more – and now this recession has exacerbated their influence and speeded up their effects. Companies that have survived the downturn need to shift their focus to surviving the upturn. We are not ever going to “get back to normal” – a new normal is emerging for everyone, everywhere.

Understanding the forces that are driving this disruptive change will give an organisation the insights needed to adjust their systems, structures and methods and gain a significant competitive advantage in the next 3 to 5 years. It will also set them up for longer term success in the next few decades. It is therefore essential to provide not just senior leaders, but all staff throughout your company, with a framework of thinking about this “new normal”. You want them to work together to take advantage of the opportunities that will emerge.

There are at least five key drivers of disruptive change that every organisation in every industry and sector needs to track. These are the T.I.D.E.S. of change. (It’s a corny acronym, I know, but hopefully it will help with both remembering the framework, as well as making it easy to use on a regular basis in team meetings and informal conversations throughout your organisation). Here then are the key drivers of disruptive change in the next decade, and some questions to ask yourself and your teams as you plan to respond to them:

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M-Pesa, Vodacom, Nedbank and Rob Shuter

Earlier this year Rob Shuter (head of Nedbank Retail) resigned from Nedbank and joined Vodacom as Financial Director. It was an exciting move from my perspective as I watch mobile phone companies (and technology in general) redefine how we do business. Not necessarily the companies, but users who adapt the technology to find innovative ways to run their businesses differently. The big question I was asking was what happens when someone with intimate retail banking knowledge and experience (especially of Shuter’s profile) gets a significant position at a mobile phone company? What happens after what comes next?

I’ve not seen anything obvious in the press, and have quite possibly missed it, but this week a couple of pieces of the puzzle dropped into place. Enter M-Pesa.

M-Pesa is an amazing Kenyan innovation, and describe themselves as:

M-PESA is a Safaricom service allowing you to transfer money using a mobile phone. Kenya is the first country in the world to use this service, which is offered in partnership between Safaricom and Vodafone. M-PESA is available to all Safaricom subscribers (Prepay and Postpay), even if you do not have a bank account. Registration is FREE and available at any M-PESA Agent countrywide. The M-PESA application is installed on your SIM card and works on all makes of handsets.

My sources suggest that M-Pesa has radically transformed the banking space in Kenya and left the banks flat-footed and out of the equation. Around 15 million people use M-Pesa to transfer money and make payments. Kenyan banks (collectively) have a third of this number as customers. M-Pesa has transformed banking access to the previously un-banked, who are found predominately in rural areas in Kenya. Areas that traditional banks have little to no access to.

The person I spoke to this week had some of the following to say about M-Pesa:

M-Pesa has made the sim card more valuable than a credit card.

M-Pesa is transforming how aid is distributed within Kenya.

M-Pesa has fundamentally re-defined the banking space.

Kenyan banks have not found an ‘anti-dote’ to M-Pesa’s presense, and possibly wont or can’t, simply because they’re unable to redefine themselves.

Maybe a little over-enthusiastic. But the hype and the numbers do confirm his thoughts.

Enter Shuter, Vodacom and Nedbank….

What if Vodacom’s next move is to bring M-Pesa to South Africa? Both Safaricom (M-Pesa’s master) and Vodacom are subsidiaries of Vodaphone. Certainly they have someone with huge retail banking experience in Shuter, and he has intimate knowledge and I imagine a solid relationship with Nedbank.

What if? Watch this space. This may be what happens after what comes next…..

The James Martin 21st Century School – understanding the future

I am a huge fan of James Martin. Not the celebrity chef. Nor the inventor of the aircraft ejection seat. Nor any of the other famous James Martins. I am a huge fan of James Martin the futurist and author of one of the best books of all time, “The Meaning of the 21st Century” (see a previous post about the book here).

I recently discovered that a think tank “school” has been created at Oxford university, and named in his honour. It’s the James Martin 21st century school. It seems to be a fantastic institution. You can see an 8 minute video of the Dean of the school, ex-South African, Ian Goldin, speaking recently at TED. Follow the school at Twitter/21school.

The school’s aim is to tackle the toughest challenges of the 21st century, and provide input and resources for the Oxford university community on these issues (see the list below). They aim to formulate new concepts, policies and technologies that will make the future a better place to be. Very nice!

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The Twitter interview

I was recently interviewed by a journalist on the issue of Twitter and social media, and how it might impact traditional media. It was a fairly focused interview – not broad ranging – but you might be interested in some of the thoughts that emerged.

Q1. How has Twitter changed the landscape of social networking?

A1. No, I don’t think so. Twitter is to online communication what text messages (SMSs) did to email. Because you’re only allowed 140 characters, you’re forced to be short, sharp and to the point (or, in many people’s cases: vague, confusing and silly). I think Twitter has added to an already growing trend towards social networking.

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Office Technology, Boomers and Generation X & Y

For most Boomers (born 1950s and 60s), the office had the best technology – much better than they had at home. I started work at KPMG Johannesburg in the early 1990s, when they had just imported over 100 Apple System 7 “luggable” computers. This gave KPMG more computing power than the USA government had at the time (they needed special US Senate approval for the purchase)! I was a techie nerd as a kid (from my awesome first Atari 800SX, with green screen, to my AT computer in the early 1990s).

But I had nothing at home to match what I had available to me at work. And that’s not to mention the fax machine, the photocopier, the mainframe, the telex (OK, I’m not that old, but it’s the concept that’s important here), and other amazing technology available at the office. And the most up-to-date software too. I used to try and book an Apple out every weekend, and take it home with me to play on.

But now times have changed. Most of today’s young people come to work everyday, completely frustrated and irritated by the out-of-date technology available to them. Their office has worse technology than they have at home. And, even worse, restrictive IT policies mean that they can’t bring technology from home to the office, as they’d like to. IT requires them to use Excel and Word, when they’d prefer to use Google Docs. IT restricts their ability to load apps onto their machines – little programs that would help increase their productivity and efficiency. And, if they’re Apple fans, tough like if the company has chosen a PC platform. Standardisation trumps productivity and enjoyment!

This doesn’t make sense. If you can’t keep ahead (or even keep up) with current IT specs, then the least you should be doing is allowing staff to use their own technology. I know IT will faint and give 100 reasons not to do this (their starting point will be “security concerns”, I’ll bet). But IT should not have the final word here. There are other considerations, including the motivation and engagement of your staff, especially your top talent, productivity and efficiency, and the reduction of costs (why not let staff use their own technology and give them a small personal budget to get what they want for themselves).

Space Tourism is 18 months away

Last Thursday, Sir Richard Branson updated shareholders in Virgin Group on “Virgin Galactic”, the company that has taken $200,000 deposits from over 200 people for seats on the first commercial near-orbit flight. However, his announcement indicated that the first flight would be reserved for his family (an a few friends and some journalists, too, no doubt), and that it is expected to happend within about 18 months.

In addition to these tourist flights, Virgin Galactic will also put satellites into space, train NASA crews and is investigating orbital hotels and tours of the moon. Anyone who says this won’t happen clearly has never heard of Richard Branson (or the Wright Brothers for that matter)! A few people alive today are old enough to remember when cars were considered a luxury for the truly rich and famous. How long will it be before the middle class can afford space tourism? Probably in my lifetime, I would have thought.

The “mother ship” that will launch the actual space flights: VMS Eve (see photo), named after Sir Richard’s mum, got its debut in Oshkosh, Wisc., this past July. And SpaceShipTwo, the suborbital plane for space tourism, will be unveiled on December 7, Branson says. He added: “What started off as a dream to send people just for the excitement of a voyage to look back and marvel at Earth has turned into a business.”

How, when and why I Tweet and Blog

I’m often asked how I use social media, so I thought it might be helpful to do a quick blog about it. Not because you really care about me, but because it might help spark some thoughts about how you use social media and because it might help you get more out of this website and TomorrowToday’s other resources.

Firstly, then, this blog site. I use it as my filing cabinet for good ideas and good stuff I’ve seen. I focus on tracking trends that are shaping the new world of work, with a particular focus on demography and shifting societal values. But I’m also interested in the impact of other major forces, such as technology, institutional shifts, the environment and ethical consumption. I use this blog as a way of capturing case studies, ideas, trends and especially for writing up bits and pieces that I can later use in longer articles, white papers and books. The categories on the right hand side are linked to existing and expected frameworks (which we use as presentations or workshops with our clients).

As an author, I try and keep a discipline of writing about 200-400 words every day. Sometimes these words are rubbish – those are filed in fragmentary documents on my hard drive. Sometimes they start something that then inspires me to develop an article length entry – most recently, for example, I wrote a monster entry about Good to Great – that took nearly a week to complete. But every now and again, the 200-400 words produce a great thought – and that becomes a blog entry. My aim is one of these every other day.

Our blog has an automatic widget that then reports the new blog entry on Twitter (the feed is at @tomorrowtodayza). I wait about 30 minutes and then Retweet that auto notice using my own Twitter account (@codrington).

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Entrepreneurial Edge – CNBC Africa

If you’re watching CNBC Africa this evening (15 October) at around 20:30, you can catch Entrepreneurial Edge (hosted by Chris Bishop), with at least one of it’s guests being me : )

The focus of the programme is future trends impacting entrepreneurs, and we chatted around education, skills development and Web 2.0. The two other guys in the interview were Dawie Olivier (CIO – Sasfin) and Devan Naiker (Dep CEO – Services SETA)

There was some nice stuff being thrown around in the short time we had. Thanks to Kate from SimonSays Communications for arranging and for being there to do my hair (really not necessary – I need a lot more than hair help)

CNBC Africa is on Channel 410 on DSTV.

Power of Mobile Money

In the early 1990’s I started work for one of South Africa’s largest banks. The most innovative project I worked on was the use of smart card/chip technology to enable people to purchase items using the smart chip inside their mobile phones. I thought it was the best idea out! Back then mobile phones were the size and the weight of a brick, but the advantages of the mobile chip technology in financial services seemed limitless. The project though never gained traction because the bank was concerned about handing over too much power to the mobile phone operators, and eroding profits.

So it was with great enjoyment that I read the Power of Mobile Money article in a recent Economist. This article illustrates the power behind markets and shows how even the poorest farmer in Africa can force bank managers to support one of the best financial innovations of recent years.

You can read the article below or follow this link to The Economist

The power of mobile money
Sep 24th 2009
From The Economist print edition

Mobile phones have transformed lives in the poor world. Mobile money could have just as big an impact

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