Why unemployment will rise as the economy recovers in 2010

This is a simple insight, but might help a few people as they think ahead to 2010. At this time of year it is fashionable to make all sorts of predictions for the year ahead – since I am a futurist and make my money by helping people to make sense of the new world of work, I’d better put my money where my mouth is.

I believe that 2010 will see a slow, but consistent economic recovery throughout the world. I would hope that the new UK government would have the guts to cleanse the banking industry, by demanding a full audit and accounting of their liabilities. But I doubt this will happen. Nevertheless it appears that the last of great banking surprises has now come and gone, and that we can start to rebuild. Growth will probably start first in technology, medical and green industries, with a slow growth in construction. But construction has a problem coming as government money that has been brought forward from future years runs out. And that will probably be the biggest factor that inhibits growth and keeps it slow and steady.

One indicator, however, will put some people off and confuse many pundits. Unemployment is likely to rise and keep rising in 2010. Many will take this as a sign that the recovery is not happening. But they would be wrong. This is a simple lesson in knowing what a trend actually tells you.

In most countries, the unemployment figure is actually the number of people who have signed up for unemployment benefits or assistance. In many countries, it is actually the number of people who are actively seeking work. In the midst of a deep recession, as we have experienced over the past year, many people who are actually unemployed don’t bother to register themselves as job seekers. They reason that there’s no point. But as news of a recovery begins to seep through the media, their hopes begin to rise and they sign up as job seekers, hoping to find work.

And that’s why official unemployment figures will probably rise as the economy begins to recover.

It’s not going to be easy to be a strategist next year. 2010 is going to be a wild year. And my guess is that fortune will favour the brave… and the well informed.

After Shock: the five trends disrupting business in the next 5 years

Updated in March 2010 (now with an added Executive summary in the PDF format)

Download a copy of this article in PDF format – right click here. The contents of this article can be presented as a keynote or a workshop for your team. Contact our UK or South African offices to find out how.

As the world slowly emerges out of recession over the next few years, it will become increasingly clear that this was more than just an economic downturn. Disruptive forces are significantly reshaping the world of work. Some of these changes have been brewing for a decade or more – and now this recession has exacerbated their influence and speeded up their effects. Companies that have survived the downturn need to shift their focus to surviving the upturn. We are not ever going to “get back to normal” – a new normal is emerging for everyone, everywhere.

Understanding the forces that are driving this disruptive change will give an organisation the insights needed to adjust their systems, structures and methods and gain a significant competitive advantage in the next 3 to 5 years. It will also set them up for longer term success in the next few decades. It is therefore essential to provide not just senior leaders, but all staff throughout your company, with a framework of thinking about this “new normal”. You want them to work together to take advantage of the opportunities that will emerge.

There are at least five key drivers of disruptive change that every organisation in every industry and sector needs to track. These are the T.I.D.E.S. of change. (It’s a corny acronym, I know, but hopefully it will help with both remembering the framework, as well as making it easy to use on a regular basis in team meetings and informal conversations throughout your organisation). Here then are the key drivers of disruptive change in the next decade, and some questions to ask yourself and your teams as you plan to respond to them:

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The James Martin 21st Century School – understanding the future

I am a huge fan of James Martin. Not the celebrity chef. Nor the inventor of the aircraft ejection seat. Nor any of the other famous James Martins. I am a huge fan of James Martin the futurist and author of one of the best books of all time, “The Meaning of the 21st Century” (see a previous post about the book here).

I recently discovered that a think tank “school” has been created at Oxford university, and named in his honour. It’s the James Martin 21st century school. It seems to be a fantastic institution. You can see an 8 minute video of the Dean of the school, ex-South African, Ian Goldin, speaking recently at TED. Follow the school at Twitter/21school.

The school’s aim is to tackle the toughest challenges of the 21st century, and provide input and resources for the Oxford university community on these issues (see the list below). They aim to formulate new concepts, policies and technologies that will make the future a better place to be. Very nice!

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The increasing bankruptcy of 24 hour news media

I enjoy Jon Stewart’s Daily Show – the satirical news program from the States. Sometimes puerile, sometimes just dumb, but quite often genius, it is an (irreverent) look into US politics, culture and media. This past week, Stewart once again poked fun at the US media giants and the dumbing down of mainstream news media.

If it wasn’t so sad, it would be hysterical. Mainly, it’s just sad that the people we’re supposed to trust to report on what’s happening in our world have descended to these depths.

Watch the video below, or go here if you can’t see it.
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